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  1. #1
    DCE
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    North Dakota "Bubble"?

    So, do you think the current rates and demand in ND are a "bubble" that will burst soon?

    I have read some opinions that the oil companies will soon be slowing everything down in order to get the prices under control. With all of the publicity and the number of trucks heading up there, it seems that the shortage of trucks and the high rates might possibly be coming to an end - especially for owner operators?

    I have also spoken with people who believe that we are still early on for demand and it will coninue to increase. If that is the case, perhaps the demand will remain and the rates will stay high?

    It looks to me like there will be demand there in the long term as long as crude prices stay high and the EPA doesn't shut things down, but as more trucks arrive to meet the demand, it seems that the "bubble" might burst.

    So what do you think? Is it a good time to head to the Bakken as an OO or not (as far as rates and work go).

  2. #2
    DCE
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    Also, what do you see as far as demand for particular trucks in the near future? Will there be a greater need for water, frac sand, gravel, or something else?

    If you were heading up there next month, would you take a vac trailer, pneumatic trailer, belly dump, or something else (assuming that you could find what you wanted)?

  3. #3
    Trucker Forum STAFF Allow Me.'s Avatar
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    It's kinda' like the gold rush in the 1800's in Ca. Everybody heads out seeking that "pot of gold" so to speak. But, eventually, it fizzles out. We do need oil from this country, so, as long as there is oil not near a pristine area to keep the tree huggers happy, we should have work there, right ? But, N.D. in the winter ? Not for me.

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  5. #4
    DCE
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    I can handle the cold alright - worked in it before. I'm just worried about getting up there as the bubble breaks.

    I have a friend who is trying to put 5 more water trucks on right now, but I know another guy who has 4 water trucks leased on with another company that are bareley getting any work. He was real busy in the srping and early summer, but now he can't keep them busy. There are lots of variables, but I'm just not sure what to make of it.

  6. #5
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    I can tell you from first-hand experience that oil booms and busts happen overnight.

    I figure if you're going just to work, not buy property or put much of your own money in, you should be good even when it busts as long as you don't tie yourself down in the boom/bust area and can move on to greener pastures when it goes south.

    The people who get hurt are the ones who buy property at inflated rates during the boom, then literally can't give it away when the jobs and all of the temporary workers are gone.

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  8. #6
    Medium Load Member paul 1052's Avatar
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    If you're headed up there find living quarters first, I see a lot of guys living in their trucks in Minot. I saw an ad in Kenmare ND advertising just a bedroom for rent at $500 a month.

  9. #7
    DCE
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    Thanks for the input.

    I know there is a huge housing problem, and I know that booms go bust. I think I can deal with that part of it.

    What I am concerned about is that there may be an oversupply of trucks building up so that even though there are a lot of loads, there are even more trucks, and the rates will bottom out and the hours/loads and rates will drop even though the the demand remains steady.

    If I am looking at it correctly, in order to have an increase in demand for water and frac sand trucks, there needs to be an increase in the number of rigs drilling (not just and increase in wells). Otherwise, the demand will remain pretty constant and the additional trucks will create a surplus.

    It seems that last year everyone could get all the hours/loads they wanted, but I'm not sure that is the case now. Can anyone who is hauling there now shed a little light on this?

  10. #8
    Bullishly Optimistic BigBadBill's Avatar
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    And don't forget that much of the issue on shortage has to do with the flooding. A lot of trucks working on on this. This WILL end shortly and supply will shoot up. Better money to be made taking building supplies up, OS hay to TX and DH back to get more building supplies.

  11. #9
    Road Train Member BAYOU HOTSHOT's Avatar
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    I was running loads up to Williston,ND from houston,Tx 1,583 miles one way back in june/july/august i was getting $3,800 a load on a stepdeck and doing hay back for $2,800 last few times i have called its been $2,500-$2,800 a load even at what i was getting was not good money just over $2 a mile but its wide open hwy and summer time its not that bad
    Now that its cold and almost has snow on the ground they want it all tarped loads going and the hay coming back $2,500 on 1585 miles im out if it was not for all the hay going back to Texas no way i would haul up there for under $4,500 what it paid two years ago

  12. #10
    Bullishly Optimistic BigBadBill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BAYOU HOTSHOT View Post
    I was running loads up to Williston,ND from houston,Tx 1,583 miles one way back in june/july/august i was getting $3,800 a load on a stepdeck and doing hay back for $2,800 last few times i have called its been $2,500-$2,800 a load even at what i was getting was not good money just over $2 a mile but its wide open hwy and summer time its not that bad
    Now that its cold and almost has snow on the ground they want it all tarped loads going and the hay coming back $2,500 on 1585 miles im out if it was not for all the hay going back to Texas no way i would haul up there for under $4,500 what it paid two years ago
    Shoot me your contact info at bill@farm2fleet.com. I can get you much better rates on hay. But agree, won't do it in the weather. 2-lane roads, no shoulder, add snow and last roads to be plowed not to mention snow drifts. Won't be doing that again till late spring.

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