Three hot states to watch on Election Night


By Nathan L. Gonzales and Stuart Rothenberg
The Rothenberg Political Report


CNN's Electoral Map shows Florida, North Carolina and Ohio as battleground states.


(CNN) -- With the presidential campaign and more than 75 competitive races for the House and Senate, keeping track of it all on Election Day can be a bit overwhelming. But focusing on three states will provide a window through the November 4 election chaos.
No other state provides as much excitement up and down the ballot as North Carolina, where the polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Sen. Barack Obama is making a strong bid for the state's 15 electoral votes, with recent polls showing him in a dead heat with Arizona Sen. John McCain in the presidential race.
If Obama wins North Carolina, he's probably also won Virginia and is well on his way to the Oval Office.

Down the ballot, Democratic state Sen. Kay Hagan has a narrow advantage over incumbent GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole. But Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, a Republican, is neck and neck with Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, a Democrat, as he seeks to become the first Republican governor of the state in decades.
After a narrow win in 2006, GOP Rep. Robin Hayes is now the slight underdog against teacher Larry Kissell, a Democrat, in the 8th Congressional District. Hayes is the type of resilient incumbent who normally fends off challenges, but the anti-Republican wave might prove to be too much to overcome.

Obama and McCain are also battling for Ohio, where no fewer than four congressional seats are in play. Democrats are seeking to overcome their disappointing showing in 2006, when they picked up only a single GOP seat after targeting multiple districts. The polls in Ohio close at 7:30 p.m. ET as well.

Recent public polling shows Obama opening a narrow lead in Ohio, whose 20 electoral votes are a must-win for any GOP presidential nominee.
Republicans are likely to lose two open congressional seats in the state (the 15th and 16th Districts), a microcosm of their problems with open seats nationwide. Cincinnati-area GOP Rep. Steve Chabot is extremely vulnerable in the 1st District, even though he's run a good campaign.
GOP Rep. Jean Schmidt is also vulnerable but represents the very Republican 2nd District and faces a weak opponent, even if she isn't particularly strong herself. Republicans missed an opportunity in the 18th District, lost in 2006 because of GOP Rep. Bob Ney's ethical problems, by failing to recruit a good candidate.
And it appears that Obama has a slight advantage in Florida (27 electoral votes), and up to a half-dozen congressional incumbents could lose. Polls in Florida close at 8 p.m. ET, still making it one of the earlier states.
Democratic voter registration has surged statewide, and Republican Reps. Tom Feeney (24th District) and Ric Keller (8th District) are underdogs for re-election.
Brothers/Reps. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (21st District) and Mario Diaz-Balart (25th District) are locked in tight re-election battles.

Three hot states to watch on Election Night

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Proud Supporter Of: St. Jude Children's Research Hospital

I can't wait until it is over they all have been to ohio and are coming back

I was watching a thing on TLC about the states and apparently Missouri has picked almost all of the past presidents, it was a surprise when I heard it.

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Support the FAIR TAX

Virginia Polling Data

Poll & Date Obama (D) McCain (R)

RCP Average Obama +8

10/19 10/28
Obama +7.6
CNN/Time

10/23 10/28
Obama +9
FOX News/Rasmussen


10/26 10/28
Obama +4
SurveyUSA


10/25 10/26
Obama +9
Reuters/Zogby


10/23 10/26
Obama +7
Associated Press/GfK


10/22 10/26
Obama +7
Washington Post


10/22 10/28
Obama +8
Roanoke College


10/23 10/29
Obama +9
Pew Research




This is the bad news for McCain.
Even if he were to win NC, FL, OH, CO, NV, and Indiana, He would STILL lose if he did not carry Virginia. He MUST win EVERY battleground state to reach 270. I can't understand why McCain has not devoted more energy to Virginia. Instead, He is wasting time and money in PA where a democrat has won the last 4 elections and where he is Behind Obama with no hope of carrying the state. I have to agree with Savage on this one. McCain has run one of the sorriest campaigns in history.

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Proud Supporter Of: St. Jude Children's Research Hospital

Obama is a sorry lier that said he would take federal campaign money and waited till McCain accepted it to tell everyone he changed his mind.. Why? because if they had to play under the same rules he knew he would lose...

Anyways only one poll matters...

Soooo McCain is crying because he got out smarted?
Grandpa is gonna have to suck it up and get more funds from those big ol' drug companies.

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Proud Supporter Of: St. Jude Children's Research Hospital

Colorado will likely add one more Senator to the Democratic side... future Senator Mark Udall.
rx

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"I'm able to multi-task,
I can write and piss you off at the same time"

You might ask what it takes to remember
When you know that you've seen it before
Where a government lies to a people
And a country is drifting to war Jackson Brown

No you fail to see what Obama has done.. he has ruined a controlled campaign expenditure that has been used since Watergate.. Now campaigns will just get ridiculously expensive to run thanks to Obama.
There will be no equality amongst candidates and campaign money..

It amazes me how happy you people are to drag this country into the gutter, It amazes me how you all are so willing to allow your freedoms just to be taken away.. It amazes me that you all think adding a trillion more dollars to the mandatory budget is a good thing.. It amazes me that you all think health care provided by the government is going to be better, lol like the government does a good thing at anything they do..

All just because you want a democrat in office and not a republican.. It has nothing to do with his policies because Obama plans are just nuts.. We can't afford it... Right now each household in America would have to pay over 500,000 to pay of the national debt that we currently have

LET ME SAY THAT AGAIN.......
EVERY HOUSEHOLD IN AMERICA WOULD HAVE TO PAY OVER 500,000 TO PAY OFF THE NATIONAL DEBT THAT WE HAVE CURRENTLY

THE PROBLEM WITH YOU LIBS YOU LIVE IN A DREAM... GET OUT A FREAKING PeN AND WRITE THE MATH DOWN INSTEAD OF WATCHING T.V..
IF EVERY HOUSE IN AMERICA CURRENTLY OWES 500,000 HOW IN THE HECK ADDING ANOTHER TRILLION GOING TO MAKE IT BETTER?

GET A PeN STOP WATCHING T.V... DO THE NUMBERS AND YOU MIGHT LEARN SOMETHING ON YOUR OWN WITHOUT HAVING TO WATCH T.V AND OBAMA SAYING "YES WE CAN"

IT WILL NOT WORK PEOPLE (LIBS) IT WILL NOT...............

YOU HAVE TO CUT MANDATORY GOVERNMENTAL SPENDING NOT INCREASE IT.. YOU HAVE TO CUT TAXES NOT INCREASE THEM..

ALL BECAUSE YOU WANT HEALTH CARE.. GET A FREAKING JOB AND PAY FOR IT JUST LIKE ANYBODY ELSE THAT WANTS IT SHOULD HAVE TO DO

Well i have certainly seen the light.
500,000 per person in the U.S.A!! wow!!
The repubs have done a much worse job than I thought!!

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Proud Supporter Of: St. Jude Children's Research Hospital

Ya and you are supporting somebody who wants to continue to add to the deficit.. And raise taxes on everybody to cover it... The problem is we will not be able to cover it..