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Apathy elected Obama, not me! -- WiseOne

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The next headline for the last quarter of 07 will be:

Oil companies announce record profits.

It's almost time to short the market.

If oil hits $100, it's going to get hammered.

Fundamentals justify a price around $65 a barrel, all this other stuff is dollar related and spec buying. Once the speculators jump in like they have the last ten days, its time to bail.

You heard it here first, oil may touch $100, then get slammed.

I read an interesting blog yesterday about this. Here is part of it....


Okay, so all of these things are a factor to some extent. But what analysts and pundits generally fail to point out is another reason for high oil prices in the U.S. market is the devaluation of the dollar. If it weren't for that, oil would cost about $60 a barrel, as it does effectively does in Europe and Canada. On George W. Bush's inauguration day in January 2001, you could have purchased a barrel of oil for about $30. If you lived in Europe, a barrel would have set you back about 32 Euro. Because the value of the U.S. Dollar has fallen so substantially since then (it took 93 cents to buy a Euro in January 2001, it now takes $1.42), the increase in the cost of oil for a U.S. consumer has far outstripped the increase for a Euro (or Canadian, or Swiss, or just about any other) consumer.
Today, it takes US $89 to buy a barrel of oil, but only 62 Euro. Going from 32 Euro to 62 is a healthy rise, but is less than a 10% annual increase since Bush has been in office. By contrast, the move from $30 to $89 is nearly a tripling, or more than 17% per year. See this chart, where the price of oil in U.S. dollars is represented in white while the price in Euros is in red: