Is is possible to speculate what the industry will be like in 10 years? It sounds like it is harder and harder to make a buck trucking as the years have gone by. How can the whole enterprise of trucking keep going with fuel rising, and economy changing? I mostly wonder because I would love to get into trucking after the kids are on their own, but I don't feel like there will be much left to get into, even though the companies keep saying how good the future of trucking will be.
I tend to think it will go back to rails dominating the long haul, and smaller trucks running the freight from hubs. Everything I've seen indicates this won't happen though--trucks getting more comfortable--presumably for longer hauls? Requests for more and more drivers--I realize this is probably just to glut the market and have you guys runnin' for minimum wage. If you listen to government and industry, it sounds like it will be status quo for the foreseeable future. Anyone with experience been thinking what the future will look like for truckers?

-Privateer

My opinions are as follows.....



Because of the HOS rules badly restricting drivers working hrs and productivity and because of the low freight rates ALL long haul ops will be team only. With many regional drop yrds so that the teams time is the most productive it can be. Local drivers will be doing all the sitting and waiting at shippers/receivers. The trailers will be pulled from a trailer pool similar to the rail car pool used by the various rail operators today.

Certainly part of the local work will be rail head transportation to and from shippers/receivers.

The big killer of long distance OTR will be HOS rules making a driver sit almost as much as he is able to work. There by making that plan completely unfeasible for both the driver and the company owning the truck.... hence the push to all team OTR runs.

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With as many people on here complaining about the OTR lifestyle, you'd think they'd be happy to have the railroads take it over. I'm a total noob, but it seems like the railroads would provide a lot more regional and local jobs that everyone seems to want to get into so they can see there wife and kiddies more often.

I'd be more interested in what the price of fuel will do to shipping. Obviously no one here is going to eat the rising cost of fuel so that will get put on the shipper or reciever. At some point moving freight from point a to b will no longer be cost effective and we may see a change in freight movements. Of course they also say our economy is expected to double by 2020 so that means more freight.

Who knows?

Kevo

I tend to agree with Brickman's post. However you will still have a lot of trucking going on.

The big thing is that we as truckers are going to have to be able to change with the times. People are still going to need to have freight moved, and the railroads do not service the entire country.

When you look at the cost of adding a railhead vs paying truckers, I think you will still see a LOT of trucks on the road. I think you will see more and more of teams driving OTR. I think you will see much more cooperation between TL long haul and LTL breakouts for short haul or local P & D.

Trucking provides the JIT service that the railroads are not likely to be able to match, at least in the forseeable future. The railroads are so hampered by their union regs that they really have some problems.

If I had the inclination (which I don't) to go owner-operator I would not hesitate to do so at this time.

Railroads are great for running massive amounts of bulk freight with no real timeline. Trucks are where its at for time sensitive freight. You will never see a walmart getting supplied exclusively by rail. It would cost more to lay and maintain the track than 1000 trucks would begin to cost.

I know more about railroading than I do trucking. That was my passion growing up, but I did a mentoring type of thing at UPRR and let me tell you.. Swift or JBHT has a better chance of hiring me.

IMHO the trucking industry is spiraling and needs help from somewhere. Seems like people are far and few in between that are willing to stick their necks out for truckers.. even us the drivers. If there actually was a big week long trucker shut down, there would be thousands out there getting that cheap freight moved.

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Thanks for the insight so far guys. I guess in my mind, there are so many unknowns about the future. First, I feel like we are due for a depression in the next 20 years. I mean the kind where the average man can barely survive, not like the normal recession that hurts people who have over-extended themselves. Some probably think we are almost there, but it can get so much worse. Fuel prices are the other factor. In theory, the fuels we are using now can only go so high, because there has to be a price where alternative fuels can be produced at the same cost. That is why I think the arabs better be careful, or they will price themselves out of the market. Especially if there is a technological break through. I am sure they always keep prices just below this threshold. Like you say, trucks will always be needed. Even if it looks like the land of Mad Max out there, someone will have the balls to armor up some rigs, mount some machine guns, and get a load to market.

In ten years the only difference you are likely to see is in the hardware we use, and the the volume of use. The job, the lifestyle, the woes, and the joys will all be about the same. I doubt any real changes will even be noticeable, except by those who make a living dissecting the industry. They will have the exact percentages of this, and that, to tell us how it's changed, but without those bean-counters telling us the minor differences, we won't notice.

Barring a catastrophe of Godly proportions we should just keep plugging along.

Now if had asked about the changes that might occur in a century, then I would say, "who the hello knows." I mean look how the movement of freight has changed during the last century. I bet those in the business back then never dreamt how it actually has evolved.

I have to agree with Brickman on the teams, you already see companies giving the better freight to teams, just makes sense. That's why my son and I are teaming together more money and if you can find someone who you can get along with it can be a good experience.

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10 yrs might be a bit short for the changes I mentioned, but after seeing the changes made in just the 6 short yrs I've been out here... 20 yrs is NOT a stretch. We certainly do not have 100 yrs to wait for most OTR to be team only, mandatory on board recorders and very restrictive HOS so that the single driver will have a hard time getting by. Look at the container business hauling off of the ports, most of those guys are living on a VERY short shoe string.

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You know, I am actually surprised that company drivers aren't already required to run in teams. Why should the truck ever be idle? I think a lot of things can change in 10 years in the trucking industry, and in 100 yrs!? I really don't think trucking will be considered labor fit for humans. The trucks will be completely autonomous by then. We will all work as data nodes on some huge supercomputer network. "How was your day honey?", "Oh, must've been a tough one because my brain is TIRED!"

I must admit, that my kids won't be grown up in ten years, but I figured if in ten years trucking looks a certain way, then it will only change half as much in the next five remaining until I can get started. So, a long time to go for me. Right now I live a life 180 degrees from a trucker's. I almost never go anywhere, ever. Sometimes into town for food and supplies, but I have children (one autistic), and some animals, and I can't leave. If I did try to be a driver now, everything here would go to hell. I know being home even weekends wouldn't be enough to keep this place going. My wife would not be able to take up the slack. So, I'll stay here and 'dream' for now.. I know that nothing is ever as good as you think it will be, but there are days that sitting in a 6 hour traffic jam would be better than being here--mostly from the autism.

Switching gears again, I still think the rails will start to step up their role in transport. Just because they can't deliver a load on time now, doesn't mean that they won't be able to in the future. The rails are government funded also, so they can just take our money to make all the necessary upgrades to everything. Isn't oil supposed to be on the downward slope of supply in the next 10-20 years? That's a big window, but I don't think anyone is in a hurry to tell us how long it has left. We do have a lot of coal left, (i've heard up to 2000 years) and can make diesel from that at a cost a bit more than what we pay now. All these things drive the economy, which trucking services. I feel like the slightest disturbance to energy could really effect how many trucks there are out there.