Truck drivers have been put through the paces during the last two years, and still the ranks of CDL professionals grew by a reported 6 percent. During the height of the pandemic, truckers were deemed essential workers, and hours of service regulations were set aside so women and men could deliver goods and materials to American communities. During the container port bottlenecks in 2021, it was truckers hauling freight that reduced congestion.
Now comes an economic slowdown by export giant China. Some predict the Asian manufacturing power will decline to under 5 percent growth in 2022 and inflation will wane as a result. Consumer spending has declined, and working families are tightening their belts. Fewer imports will likely arrive at West Coast ports as overstocked retailers scrabble to purge inventories.
“As Chinese bottlenecks ease, there are also signs Western demand for consumer goods is fading as inflation eats into household income and consumers shift spending to services. U.S. retailers including Target Corp. and Bed Bath & Beyond Inc. have warned of a financial hit due to an excess inventory of goods consumers no longer wanted,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Economists now assert that China’s sluggish economy could have a positive effect on global inflation. Annual U.S. inflation hit a 40-year high of 8.6 percent in May, sending consumer spending into a tailspin. Gasoline and diesel posted record-high prices at the pump and indicators point to fewer goods and materials being transported through the dog days of summer.
Some freight hauling insiders have been predicting the trucking industry would get crushed by high diesel prices and inflation. Pain has certainly been felt by small outfits and owner-operators across the country.
But the trade-off of fewer containers to move and reduced inflation doesn’t necessarily seem like an enviable bargain at first blush. One possible outcome would appear to be less work and lower salaries for truckers. But if the adversity over the last two years proves a reliable measure, truckers could very well take this shift in stride.
One of the primary reasons CDL holders may not be significantly impacted by fewer imports stems from the persistent truck driver shortage. Heading into 2022, the American Trucking Associations (ATA) went on the record indicating the country suffers an 81,000 trucker shortage. Hiring gains have been made in terms of younger and a more diverse workforce. By that same token, older drivers headed into retirement, and some dropped down to local and last-mile routes to spend more time at home.
The truck driver hiring surge has yet to pull even with the year-over-year shortfall. And the ATA points out that more than 1 million newly-minted CDL holders will be needed in the near future. The freight hauling sector may continue to evolve. However, it seems improbable truck drivers will find themselves unemployed at any time during the current decade.
Sources:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-slowdown-could-tamp-down-global-inflation-11656853200
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