Import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are projected to experience another year-over-year increase in June, but industry experts caution that the growth is likely temporary. According to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, imports are expected to remain below 2025 levels throughout much of the fall as economic uncertainty, inflation concerns, and geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on global trade activity.
The anticipated increase in June cargo volume is largely being driven by retailers moving merchandise earlier than usual to avoid potential cost increases associated with tariffs and rising fuel prices. Companies are adjusting their supply chain strategies by accelerating imports ahead of possible policy changes and higher transportation expenses that could emerge later in the year. This early movement of goods is creating what analysts describe as an early peak season rather than the traditional late-summer surge.
Industry analysts note that the year-over-year growth figures may appear stronger than they actually are because they are being compared to unusually weak import volumes recorded during the same period in 2025. Last year’s cargo activity declined sharply following the implementation of the so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs, creating a lower comparison base for current forecasts. As a result, the projected gains for June reflect both stronger short-term demand and the effects of comparing against depressed volumes from a year earlier.
The Global Port Tracker report forecasts June import volumes to reach approximately 2.25 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), representing a significant year-over-year increase. However, the outlook becomes less optimistic after July. Forecasts indicate cargo volumes will decline below 2025 levels during August and September before stabilizing later in the year. Analysts expect July imports to decrease by more than 8% year over year, followed by similar declines in August.
Several economic factors are contributing to the weaker outlook. Rising inflation, elevated fuel costs, and uncertainty surrounding future trade policies continue to impact retailer purchasing decisions. In addition, ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the conflict involving Iran, have increased concerns about global economic stability and consumer spending. These conditions are making many businesses cautious about inventory expansion and long-term purchasing commitments.
Port activity data illustrates the changing trade environment. U.S. ports covered by the Global Port Tracker handled approximately 2.05 million TEUs in April, marking declines compared to both the previous month and the same period last year. While May and June are expected to show temporary gains, analysts believe the broader trend points toward softer import demand during the second half of the year.
For the trucking and logistics industries, these forecasts signal a mixed outlook. The short-term increase in imports could generate additional freight opportunities during the summer months, particularly for drayage providers, port carriers, and intermodal operators. However, expected declines later in the year may reduce freight volumes across supply chains, prompting carriers and logistics providers to closely monitor economic conditions and shipping patterns. As businesses continue adjusting to evolving trade policies and market uncertainties, import activity will remain a key indicator of overall freight demand and economic health.
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