Trucking Industry Recovery Shows Promise but Faces Seasonal Volatility
The trucking industry is showing signs of gradual recovery after facing historic challenges in recent years, according to Orderful’s 2025 Carrier Performance Trends Report. However, the volatile nature of specialized freight markets and seasonal fluctuations continue to pose challenges for carriers and shippers.
Erik Kiser, founder and CEO of Orderful, emphasized the importance of adaptability in the current market landscape.
“Trucking has faced historic challenges in recent years, but our latest EDI data signals a turning point. While signs of recovery are promising, the data also highlights ongoing risks around market concentration and seasonal volatility,” Kiser explained.
Seasonal Trends Continue to Impact Market Stability
The report highlights sharp seasonal demand shifts, showing a notable dip in freight volumes during the summer months, followed by a strong rebound in the fall.
📊 Key Takeaways from Orderful’s Report:
- The market is not experiencing a linear recovery but is instead adjusting to seasonal trends and structural changes.
- October’s strong performance following September’s decline suggests that carriers are learning to navigate these fluctuations more effectively.
- Shippers must prepare for demand shifts and leverage growth periods to optimize operations.
“These fluctuations underscore a crucial insight about the industry’s recovery: it isn’t following a simple upward path but rather adapting to both seasonal patterns and structural changes,” the report stated.
Specialized Freight Segments Face Unique Challenges
The report also analyzes how different trailer types are performing, highlighting both strengths and vulnerabilities within the trucking industry.
🚛 Reefer Market Trends
- Reefer carriers have maintained relative stability through market turbulence.
- However, excess reefer capacity has led to declining tender rejections and lower spot rates.
- The Reefer Outbound Tender Volume Index (ROTVI) dropped 8.31% from January to February, with a brief volume spike in mid-February that quickly faded.
🚛 Flatbed Market Challenges
- The flatbed segment is less adaptable to market shifts, with 91% of shipments relying on standard configurations.
- Specialized trailer markets are showing similar conditions to three years ago, with a recent increase in tender rejections.
🚛 Tanker Market Volatility
- The tanker segment remains the most volatile, showing significant month-to-month swings.
- The market saw a -31% drop in February 2024, followed by a peak increase of 36.4% in July 2024, driven primarily by petroleum shipments and summer gasoline demand.
Shippers and Carriers Must Adapt to Market Dynamics
The report stresses the importance of flexibility in navigating seasonal fluctuations and balancing specialized freight capacity. Freight demand varies throughout the year, and shippers must carefully strategize partnerships and resource allocation to maintain efficiency.
🔹 Key Strategies for Shippers & Carriers:
✔ Leverage trailer networks to maintain service consistency and scalability.
✔ Diversify equipment usage—13% of temperature-controlled shipments in the report were run by non-reefer trailers when conditions allowed.
✔ Partner with flexible logistics providers to secure specialized capacity when needed without overcommitting to a single provider.
Looking Ahead: Balancing Specialization and Adaptability
While the trucking industry appears to be moving past the worst of the downturn, long-term success relies on adaptability. The key to navigating this recovery period will be understanding seasonal shifts, adjusting to evolving freight demands, and building strong carrier-shipper relationships. 🚚
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