The splashy headlines may get people to click through, but fact-based assessments weigh wide-reaching factors. Upstart CDL holders and those thinking about a good-paying career in the freight transport industry would be well-served to consider other data. Driving truck ranks among the more recession-proof jobs, bar none.
For example, the American Trucking Associations established the consensus metric that the U.S. has a persistent truck driver shortage, currently hovering at 80,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates the need for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers will grow by 4 percent through 2031. An additional 90,000 truckers will be required to maintain the country’s already-strained supply chains over the next nine years. The same federal agency that reported an 11,000 loss also went on the record stating the industry requires more than a quarter-million CDL professionals to be onboarded.
“About 259,900 openings for heavy and tractor-trailer truck drivers are projected each year, on average, over the decade. Many of those openings are expected to result from the need to replace workers who transfer to different occupations or exit the labor force, such as to retire,” the BLS states. “Trucks transport most of the freight in the United States. The need for truck drivers should rise as households and businesses increase their spending and their demand for goods.”
Some might call the recent slip a mere pittance compared to the expansive trucking sector opportunities that are expected to experience year-over-year growth. The U.S. relies on trucks to move 72 percent of all goods and materials and many communities rely almost exclusively on the industry.
No one is disputing the BLS data. However, Chicken Little-esque headlines typically fail to look at root causes or the fact the trucking landscape has changed significantly since the pandemic waned. Part of the issue stems from the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, effectively hampering business growth and employment opportunities. Rate hikes have been historically used to combat inflation by stagnating economic growth. It remains feasible the Fed’s aggressive approach could thrust the country into another recession.
That being said, retailers swelled inventories over the winter and spring as consumers went on buying sprees. Ports were overrun and freight operations struggled to make timely deliveries because of the truck driver shortage. Now some retailers are grossly overstocked and have less need for truck transportation.
Since the 2021 supply chain bottlenecks, importers have reconfigured shipping routes to Gulf and Atlantic ports. The trucking landscape has shifted in response. Even a cursory look at the high-paying opportunities on jobs boards shows truck drivers won’t be standing in unemployment lines anytime soon.
Sources: freightwaves.com, foxbusiness.com, ttnews.com, bls.gov
Leave a Comment