Growers, ranchers, and truckers adapted and overcame supply chain obstacles in 2021 to post record-breaking agricultural export volume. It may sound unrealistic given America’s economic conditions and surging inflation, but experts anticipate that agricultural exports will break last year’s record.
“This is unprecedented. This is unheard of. This speaks to the reputation of American agriculture and the demand for American agricultural products all around the world. We think it’s because of the performance of all of our critical industries in the trade space that have performed over and over again regardless of the conditions of the trading environment that we can be seen as a reliable supplier,” U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service administrator Daniel B. Whitley reportedly said.
“We’re looking to take advantage of this growing demand that we have a world with a number of growing middle-class citizens in Southeast Asia, parts of Latin America. I feel we’ve got new market opportunities in the Middle East that will be unprecedented in terms of the rate of growth, the rate of demand for American agriculture products,” he reportedly said.
U.S. agricultural exports eclipsed $172.2 billion despite widely reportedly West Coast port bottlenecks and empty containers being fast-tracked back to Asian manufacturers. Industry insiders grew concerned perishables would be lost due to supply chain clogs. But through it all, truckers transported goods and materials to their final destinations. More confident than last year, industry some experts predict exports will hit $183.5 billion for fiscal year 2022. And some are increasingly optimistic that figure could surge higher than the $11.3 billion year-over-year gain.
“I think this forecast can easily be realized. To be honest, the race for $200 (billion) is on. I don’t know how many years it will take us,” Whitley reportedly said.
While Whitley enjoys considerable enthusiasm America is on the right agricultural export track, some economists worry that a complex political landscape could change the trajectory. Noting geopolitical forces such as the Russia-Ukraine war, USDA Chief Economist Seth Meyer expressed cautious optimism.
“There are other global uncertainties that could affect the U.S. agricultural trade forecast in 2022. For example, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could have global economic and trade implications. Together the two countries account for almost a quarter of global grain exports,” Meyer reportedly said. “Although we may expect global and regional grain markets to reorient to alternative suppliers and markets which may limit direct effects on U.S. agricultural exports, short-term broader macro effects would reverberate through the global economy depending on the severity and duration of the conflict. Additionally, interlinkages through fertilizer and energy markets could have knock-on effects for agricultural producers across the world.”
Meyer recently noted that wheat could post a 6-year-high yield of 48 million acres. However, corn, soybean, and wheat prices are expected to retreat from 2021 levels. Economists following agriculture trends generally agree U.S. growth will largely be dependent on China purchasing at levels consistent with the trade deal it agreed to during the Trump Administration.
So I get to pay more for Alfalfa because China is buying it all up. These farmers are greedy. Sell at home, stop supporting communist countries!