Trucking industry insiders widely agree more CDL professionals are needed. But metrics pointing to truck utilization nearing 100 percent support the notion the supply chain hiccups are not purely workforce driven.
“The total supply of drivers might not be quite as tight as it might seem from news reports and anecdotal comments that you’ve maybe heard,” FTR Transportation Intelligence vice president Avery Vise reportedly said. “Productivity remains very disruptive, as evidenced by the very strong summer. Put another way: It’s not so much that we don’t have enough drivers — it’s that they’re not where they need to be.”
Vise points out that a segment of the truck driver workforce slid over to last-mile positions that offer flexibility and the opportunity to go home every night. While Vise agrees “we probably don’t have quite enough drivers,” no one possesses the real-time data to know precisely where truckers need to be added. But a deep dive into freight rate increases and other data show utilization is nearly maxed out.
According to FTR data, dry van, reefer, and flatbed segments are expected to increase by 18-19 percent above 2020. These and other measures lead logistics experts to pinpoint truck and driver utilization as well as provide a forecast far more accurate than the weather channel.
“At the most basic level, it’s adjusting current rates by the forecast of active capacity utilization,” Vise reportedly said. “In other words, the degree to which trucks that have drivers are filled with freight. Essentially, active truck utilization is a function of driver demand, driver supply, and the productivity of trucks and drivers.”
FTR data indicates that truck and driver utilization stood over 98 percent during 2017 and into 2018 as the country rebounded from the lengthy Great Recession. Active truck utilization fell below the 10-year national average of 91 percent heading into 2019 and plummeted to 82 percent during the height of the pandemic. The hard numbers show utilization is glued to the ceiling throughout 2021 and that certainly reflects the supply chain delays everyday people are experiencing.
“We really expect only incremental relief through next year,” Vise reportedly said. “We expect that utilization will remain above 97 percent until, perhaps, the very end of next year.”
Solutions to reduce maximum active truck utilization involve improved driver retention, attracting new people to the freight hauling segment, and restoring manufacturing supply chains. Class 8 truck and trailer manufacturers have not been able to keep up with demand due to parts and materials delays. The only way to raise the active truck capacity is to enlist more CDL professionals, and then build enough tractors and trailers to ensure they’re at the right place and right time.
Sources: trucker.com, fleetowner.com
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