America’s employers added 236,000 jobs in March, trucking 5,700 to 1,612,000. Unemployment fell to 3.5%. Average hourly wages are up 4.2% YOY, slower than in late 2022. Last month’s job gain moderated from Feb.’s 326,000. 480,000 Americans began looking for work in March, pushing the labor force participation rate to 62.6%, the highest in 3 years. 

Leisure and hospitality led job growth, with restaurants barred up 50,000. Construction cut 9,000; factories reduced payrolls slightly for the second month. Black unemployment fell to 5%, the lowest in government records since 1972. The report showed job market cooling, yet resilient, should reduce inflationary pressures and give Fed confidence in the inflation outlook.

Job growth remains strong, forcing employers to raise entry-level pay (e.g., Twiddy & Co. from $13-14/hr to $18-20/hr in NC’s Outer Banks). CEO Kayne Grau of Uptake discusses data-driven prevention of expensive truck repairs. Twiddy offers full-time employees perks such as flexible work-at-home schedules and group trips. 

Due to Americans’ pent-up demand for vacations, companies are automating (e.g., Walmart’s major push for ~2/3 of stores to use robots for unloading goods). This requires roles with less physical labor but potentially higher pay.

Despite healthy job growth last month, economic signs suggest the economy is slowing, cooling inflation pressures. The Fed raised the benchmark rate from near zero in March 2022. Inflation has eased to 6% (vs. 9.1% last June) but is still above the Fed’s 2% target. 

The Labor Dept. adjusted calculations for US jobless claims, adding nearly 100,000, possibly explaining tech industry layoffs not showing up on the rolls. The Fed hopes employers reduce vacancies instead of cutting existing jobs. Next week, Labor Dept. reports on prices at the consumer and wholesale levels will give a clearer view of inflationary pressures. 

Economists hope the economy can avoid a recession despite the Fed’s rising borrowing rates; Zhao said, “Today’s job market doesn’t look like one that’s about to tip into recession; I wouldn’t bet against it.”

 

Sources:  https://www.ttnews.com/articles/236000-jobs-added-march