Latest DAT projection: rates are peaking right now
Discussion in 'Ask An Owner Operator' started by slow.rider, Jul 16, 2021.
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I book a day or two in advance vs waiting till last minute 2-4pm loads
Vitkouski and slow.rider Thank this. -
That graph looks a little artificial...I don't think that you can predict rates and freight volumes based on the past data....but maybe...maybe.Vitkouski, MTN Boomer, Cat sdp and 3 others Thank this. -
slow.rider and TallJoe Thank this.
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Accidental Trucker, Qbf594 and r2db Thank this. -
Will continue at least through start of 2022. Hard to see realistically past 6 months but closer we get to end of year then can see 6 months out from there.
drivinhome, Brettj3876 and MTN Boomer Thank this. -
I don't *think we are in runaway inflation mode but anyone that says the "stimulus" didnt do anything or only modestly increased inflation simply cant be trusted with an abacus much less a calculatorBean Jr., Eldiablo, Rubber duck kw and 2 others Thank this. -
That's merely a forecast (guess). Not even close. Let's look at freight drivers:
1) Fuel A gallon of diesel has risen more than 91 cents in the last year (38%) due to Biden's war on domestic energy production. PLEASE DON'T BAN ME, uh, the color of Trump's tie.
2) Inflation The average used car was just over $20,400 in May, which is more than a 46% increase from 2020. Inflation is at a 30-year high. There will be a push in Congress next week to push through an additional $3.7 Trillion in government spending. I wonder what that will do for inflation?
3) Shortages One of the reasons for the jump in used car prices is a shortage of computer chips used to make new cars. You mean the same chips they put in trucks? Disrupted supply chains and other shortages explain the backlog for new trucks and trailers. Wabash closed out 2020 with a backlog of more than $1 billion in trailer orders.
4) Comparables (other freight markets). The spot rate for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles increased to $9,631, up 5% from the previous week and 229% higher than a year ago. It's expected to be close to $20,000 by year end.
If you expect any of the above to improve significantly in the next 6 months I want some of what you're smoking. None of the problems have a simple, cheap fix. Even if you could magically deliver tens of thousands of computer chips to the truck manufacturers their production lines aren't set up to double or triple their capacity overnight to catch up. They'll be behind for YEARS. The only way freight rates are going down is if some other cost not on the list goes down enough to offset all the pressures to move rates up.RubyEagle, Eldiablo, MTN Boomer and 3 others Thank this. -
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Eldiablo and Midwest Trucker Thank this.
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