Celadon on the ropes...

Discussion in 'Celadon' started by double yellow, May 3, 2017.

  1. Opus

    Opus Road Train Member

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    well, with having to restate 5 years worth of earnings and projecting a $250 million loss, there's just not enough lipstick for that.
    However, Celedon, operationally is a fairly well run company. Given the time and resources, they could recover. I remember the days when the "handwriting was on the walls" for YRC; and they managed to pull it out.
    That said, and generally speaking, when the banks are making the kinds of terms they are now making with Celedon, it's usually a sign that they know the days are numbered and they want to be the first in line to get their money. Think about it; if the banks really thought Celedon could / would recover, they wouldn't put such onerous terms on their money; they'd be playing the long game and right now they're playing a very, very short game. Moreover, it's fairly safe to say that the banks are much more "in the loop" as to Celedon's true financial position than the general public; therefore the terms.
    Given what has been reported and taking in to consideration the thoughts above, I'd say they're currently in negotiations to be bought. There's really no good reason to simply put them out of business.

    One can only hope that the thieves that put them in this position get to share a cell with some of the PFJ folks......they can swap funny stories and stuff.
     
    Bean Jr. Thanks this.
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  3. spyder7723

    spyder7723 Road Train Member

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    Sound bites? Read some financial articles.
     
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  4. double yellow

    double yellow Road Train Member

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    Well I just bought a bunch more -- about as much as I could tolerate losing. Here is my analysis:

    28 million shares outstanding
    $1.35 current share price
    ----
    $38 million market cap

    Without access to financials, I have to trust that the banks extending loans are seeing good information. From reading the proposed loan covenants in the most recent SEC filing, we can see Celadon needs to:
    Maintain at least $67 million EBITDAR
    Keep lease-adjusted debt under 5x EBITDAR
    Get lease-adjusted debt under 4x EBITDAR for June 2018.

    That would put current debt under $335 million with it projected to be under $268 million in June. This estimate is supported by the amount of the $200 million term loan + $100 million revolving credit currently on offer. For perspective, they had ~$400 million debt against ~$80 million reported EBITDA in Dec 2016.

    So let's say $300 million debt today + $40 million market cap divided by $70 million EBITDAR. That works out to an EV/EBITDAR ratio of ~5

    Industry EV/EBITDA ratios:
    Roadrunner: 69
    Knight: 22
    Landstar: 15.8
    Old Dominion: 15.4
    JB Hunt: 14.2
    XPO: 12.9
    Daseke: 12.8
    USA Truck: 12
    UPS: 11.6
    SAIA: 11.2
    Heartland: 10.9
    Martin: 9.5
    Schneider: 9.0
    Werner: 8.0
    Covenant: 7.7
    PAM: 6.9
    Arc Best: 6.3
    YRC: 4.6
    Patriot: 4.3

    Those are EBITDA, not EBITDAR but it gives you an idea of the ballpark valuations. If in today's market EV/EBITDAR should be ~7 and Celadon has $270 million in debt, the market cap should be $220 million corresponding to a share price of ~$7.86.

    Of course, those are companies with audited financials on major exchanges. And I'm using 28 million shares outstanding yet the banks are now asking for equity to extend financing through 2018. The banks might want 1/4 of the company for all I know. I can't see them asking for 1/2 equity, but even if they did you'd still be looking at a projected stock price of $3.93.

    With Celadon being so entrenched in NAFTA, Trump is another wildcard. Even without trade wars, the onset of a recession could spell the end. So it is very risky & highly speculative. But there is significant upside -- to break even, I only need to be right about 1/3 of the time.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2018
    Jarhed1964 Thanks this.
  5. spyder7723

    spyder7723 Road Train Member

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    There is absolutely huge upside to it. If i had a spare 25k sitting around in the toy peterbilt savings like i did last year id probably buy. But that money and the 100k i made when i sold my celadon stocks is currently sitting in a house and property up in Ohio. I'm certainly not going to dip into my emergency truck fund account or my safe (will moderately safe) retirement funds. I'm very tempted to, even if only 20k $ worth, but I'm not letting myself.
     
    double yellow Thanks this.
  6. laaylor

    laaylor Road Train Member

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    Just hold whatever you have. I’m not positive, but, I’m hopeful that Jon and the new administration has got this plan going.. even if we do have to go into a chapter 11; I don’t think he will sell it out. He was a well respected banker in New York( I believe) for many years before his Dad died and he came back into the company to head it up.
    Freight is up; I’m staying really busy as a company driver( except, my truck is getting a starter and harness of somekind being put in at International right now! LOL) and, they just invested a lot into all of us drivers: monetarily and support wise. My take home checks have been up 15% since the 1st of the year...
    Just saying....
     
  7. Majestic 670

    Majestic 670 Heavy Load Member

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    You are just a Driver there' s no..We
    If they cease operations you will learn you are just a Driver. They the Execs will get the Golden parachutes(millions) and you will get another JOB.
     
    Jarhed1964 Thanks this.
  8. laaylor

    laaylor Road Train Member

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    Isn’t that anywhere? That’s what happens sometimes when “we” don’t own a company... Being a part of the solution to our problems and supportive when solutions are being attempted might make a difference by the “lowly we” in the company......
    I’d much rather attempt to be a positive in a crappy situation than a drama queen feeling sorry for myself....
     
    Jarhed1964, gentleroger and Opus Thank this.
  9. IluvCATS

    IluvCATS Road Train Member

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    You guys are really a bunch of Debbie Downers. Celedon is great! Never been better.
     
    06driver and scottied67 Thank this.
  10. scottied67

    scottied67 Road Train Member

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    Did you get fuel in Lodi CA Flying J tonite?
     
  11. drvrtech77

    drvrtech77 Road Train Member

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    IluvCATS and sealevel Thank this.
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