Should us new guys be afraid of autonomous technology?

I posited this question to a 40+ year veteran trucker recently. He said that every time he makes a turn, he has to make some sort of adjustment or correction. Every time. A computer simply cannot make that many decisions.
Not to mention how easy it would be to sabotage the system. A kid with spray paint could disable the optics in a few seconds.

 

Ya computer can make way more computations in any given time than a human can.

on top of that I’m pretty sure they already thought about that scenario.

 

I agree
Computers and gps systems have been used for road grading and construction for maybe 20 years??
Not the same but it shows it can be done

As mentioned
It will be many years before the majority of trucking is computer driven
I’d be more concerned with the hacking element of it than the turning element

I also think when we get there that there will be a holding yard on the outskirts of town where the truck will go and then a daycab driver will take it the last mile

Like it or not we need something better than the way many drivers out here operate their trucks and I think we missed the railroad thing
That’s what we should have had more of but don’t for whatever reason

 

And yet how many Teslas have slammed into a non-moving vehicle.
I agree it’s coming, but it’s a long way off.

 

but they did increase their FSD mode to 2000 more vehicles.

Tesla FSD Beta Test Adds 2,000 More Users But Removes Others For Safety Protocol Violations

It’s gonna happen but when is the question. I also saw that Musk tweeted “no accidents to date” on their FSD software.

 

Computations are not decisions, and decisions are what are difficult for computers.

Even things that you find trivial, like noticing someone on a bicycle on the other side of the car pulling next to you while making a turn is extremely hard for computers.

https://www.researchgate.net/public...ture_from_Motion_with_Missing_Data_is_NP-Hard

Right now the industry is hoping that liability law for autonomous vehicles will follow old horse laws where horses were expected to be dangerous and so if a toddler walked out in front of or next to a horse pulling a cart it was the handlers fault.

Autonomous Vehicle Liability is an unsettled topic but there will be a lot more tow truck drivers, broken down motorists and child pedestrian fatalities with self driving cars.

While many investors may not know of these limitations, computer scientists are very well aware of these limitations.

While I doubt anyone will read it here is a paper that covers it in detail.

http://cecs.louisville.edu/ry/TuringTestasaDefiningFeature04270003.pdf

 

NASA and the FAA have been dealing with the problems of "Automation complacency" and automation bias. Training requirements, multiple redundant decision makers both on the airplane and at ATC, intentional wide spacing and serious experience requirements are what make aircraft safer. But that industry is suffering exactly from the problems you were talking about above.

Once again people don't like to read papers but here is a cite showing that this is a very real problem.

(PDF) Complacency and Bias in Human Use of Automation: An Attentional Integration

 

The safety component is the big hurdle. The base technology to move the vehicle is readily available, has been for a long time. Several ports in Norway have been testing full autonomous operations for a few years. Everything from docking ships, load/unload and moving containers to concessionaires with automated trucks. The infrastructure they had to install was massive. This is in a closed environment as well. Little outside interference in these operations. The number one problem has/is the safety factor.

 

Go into flatbed. The day a flatbed can check its own straps and tarp is the day pigs fly.

Do we really want to live in a world where 80,000 pound vehicles are going down highways with NO humans in the loop? Really? Sounds pretty stupid to me.

Also there is NO WAY a self driving truck will be able to drive in some of these small cities like in PA. Impossible. It will never do it faster than a human. Other drivers will not have the patience for it. It can’t handle blowouts, bad weather, lights being out, any maintenance issue really... on and on. In a perfect world it would work, but this world isn’t perfect.

What autonomy will do is take more fun out of the job (what little is left) and most importantly keep wages in the toilet. Steering wheel holder will have a whole new meaning.

Isn’t it funny we don’t have self driving trains yet but they want self driving trucks? A train is on a track. It can only go one of two ways. Why? The conductors have people looking out for their jobs. Trucking has no such organization. OOIDA isn’t it. Not enough members.