The trucking business is delivering chilling news about the economy.

I don't see a lot to be alarmed at in the article.

900 trucks over the last 3 quarters for Swift - is that all? They wrote it like it was a big deal.

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-REB-32522

Worst month since recession. Times are tough right now..

 

Reason why the choo choos aren't in high demand as before, not because of the diesel prices. It's because the rail infrastructure is crap and the Carriers are tired of paying OT for trains with flat tires. The receiving clerks just don't want to hear any more excuses and fed up.

Many big carriers( UPS ) rather just add drivers and move the freight along then have a dozen drivers at @48hr waiting for the train at 1 yard. Times that throughout the nation looking at a few thousand drivers for 1 carrier.

 

You can order as many trucks as you want but u still need a driver behind the wheel.fuel prices and overstocked warehouses are the reason behind the slowdown,just dont get in debt and save money for a rainy day and everything will be fine

 

Just read another article that the trucking industry just had record revenue, all these port shutdowns probably had a lot to do with it.


QUOTE="Rockin&Rollin, post: 4603852, member: 61982"]The trucking business is delivering chilling news about the economy


The vast $700 billion US trucking industry, with its 3.4 million drivers who hauled 10 billion tons last year -- 69% of the nation's freight -- is an early warning system for the overall economy. And it's been making the wrong rumbling sounds.

Rates for intermodal containers by rail dropped on a year over year basis in January, February, and March, according to the Cass Intermodal Price Index by Cass Information Systems. April hasn't been released yet. Cass tried to explain the March decline this way: railroads were facing weaker demand and losing pricing power as shippers were shifting loads to trucks because diesel has gotten cheaper.

But spot rates for tractor-trailers started dropping in April. It triggered all kinds of explanations at the time, for example, in the Journal of Commerce:

Given the exuberance of record year 2014, carriers have added lots of new trucks to replace older equipment and to expand capacity. Swift Transportation , the largest U.S. truckload carrier, added over 900 trucks over the past three quarters, with more to come in 2015. J.B. Hunt added over 1,085 tractors in 2014. Smaller carriers added equipment as well. But by mid-April, the phrase "excess capacity" started cropping up.

In reality, over-the-road shipping volumes fell 5% in March from the prior year. It seemed like a fluke. But in April, according to the just released Cass Freight Index, shipping volumes fell again, this time by 2.5%. The index for shipping expenditures fell 3.5% in March and 4.7% in April.

We know the first quarter was crummy. But April is in the second quarter. This weakness is now infecting it as well. That's what the trucking industry is saying.

There are numerous reasons why this might be happening, including the $110-billion inventory buildup during the first quarter. Businesses will eventually whittle it down by trimming their orders. And sales continue to be lousy. For example, retail sales in April inched up only 0.9% year over year. That's less than the rate of inflation. So in terms of shipping volume, it marks a down month.

The trucking business is an early thermometer of the real economy. Things might turn around on a dime. There might be a sudden surge of sales that will propel the economy to escape velocity. But we doubt it, and we'll keep listening to the truckers for more clues going forward.

When the People's Bank of China spoke of "big downward pressure," it wasn't kidding.

"Rather than a sign of underlying economic weakness, the softening spot market may indicate shippers are finding the trucking capacity they need, for now, with contractual partners."[/QUOTE]

 

Swift sold off about 1800 trucks last year cuz they couldn't keep drivers. Expect a mass turnover there as they force company drivers to have in cab driver facing cameras.

 

This industry treats drivers as a commodity, not a resource.

The reason swift and other companies dumped trucks on the used truck market is because of their accouting practice, not a lack of drivers. The trucks depreciates to the point that the company doesn't hold on to them but gets rid of them and buys new ones.

 

I'm not making it political. I'm just stating that the administration and the mainstream media contradicts the story you mention in lots of different ways and quite often. Who are we supposed to believe?