Finally got my own truck

We'll have to agree to disagree on that one To each their own though.

 

Looks like the guy who made two posts above you has everything figured out and made it

 

Except that this time, the prognosis for spot market should be much gloomier. The poor rates are deriving from over - saturation, not cyclical recession. I don't remember times when back orders for new equipment, including trailers, were this long or used equipment prices this high. It will take awhile for this to be sorted out, if ever.

 

Your thesis is that over saturation of equipment is causing low freight prices, but high used equipment prices?

 

This should not be surprising. When you have to acquire, replace or add equipment, while for the new you have to wait close to a year, you have no choice but buy the used.

Other sectors of economy are not complaining as much, unemployment being under 5% and all. Definitely over saturation here.

 

The boastful end of 2017 and 2018 created a huge promise of reward. Easy access to the spot market and proliferation of app based brokerages indeed made things much easier for "poor English" immigrants who don't have to overcome the language barrier with brokers any more. Also for many complacent regular people, who don't want the over the phone salesman talk to get loads. "Click and book" is where all this is going. How could this not attract newcomers, who only see current - accessible for their credit worthiness - equipment prices, diesel at 2.75 and don't consider have not clue (as in ignorance is bliss) of any other long term costs?
Specializing is the only way out. Doing dry van on the spot market is a rat race forever.

 

Something is gotta give though. I know a lot of people who are in negative in January and February. They bought new trucks and trailers last year and put drivers in them. Drivers are paid 1500-2000 salary per week. This is not sustainable in this kind of market.
The situation reminds me 2016. Things got better only in May. If May comes and market does not improve much, all that equipment will go for sale

 

My local KW dealer had an empty lot from mid 2017 through 2018. People bought up all used and new trucks they could get their hands on. Yes, which creates over saturated market leading to low rates as has been said.

However, I’m starting to see the lot fill up very quickly as people have quit buying and are also going broke. I don’t anticipate things getting much better in May. More so the rates won’t keep going lower but will stabilize where they are at.

Paying a driver 1500 to 2000 a week won’t work anymore. Keep paying that much and both owner and driver will be out of a job. It’s gotta work for everyone.

Only the strong and well prepared will survive.

 

My neighbor is 95 cpm plus 14-25 cpm fuel surcharge LP owner feeding 2 kids and wife many years. Yet he is super happy always upgrading to new rig and bragging about it.
I think some people couldn't afford a truck so sticking with what they can get. So no judgement there.

 

Im not in this game yet but my strategic business plan is finished and I know of a few guys in that situation you described.