4 Corners Area Significant Snow Event Likely

Feb 27, 2017 (Monday-Tuesdayt), looks like a significant snowfall event for SW Colorado and extending down towards Flagstaff For the Monday 2/27 time frame. 4-12 inch likely amounts, depending.

Be prepared if running US-191 and US 491/550 and expect chain requirements across SW Colorado. Travel across AZ I-40 and into western New Mexico will likely be problematic too.

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

 

I was sort of watching that "event" the last 4-5 days. Models still vary wildly for the Tuesday afternoon setup. A lot of convergence and timing variables that will have significant changes to the setup for northern AR and into MO bootheel region. A few models show some likelihood for a few significant tornados potential but I'm not seeing that happening. I just see a lot of scattered storms with wind concerns and a lot of lightning, a QLCS line late in the day/evening, and scattered hail cores. Any tornados and large hail concerns will have only a very small window of opportunity to develop.

Wednesday setup further east also looks more like a severe storm setup and maybe some small hail. I'm a bit surprised to see the "Enhanced" areas as of Monday morning but we'll see.

All that said ... early season (late winter season) setups in the southeast USA are always difficult to prepare for, and you never know what will happen.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov

Tuesday into Tuesday night potential


Wednesday into Wednesday night potential

 

Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
305 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

AZZ015-271815-
/O.CON.KFGZ.WS.W.0003.170227T1800Z-170228T1800Z/
Western Mogollon Rim-
Including the city of Flagstaff
305 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING
TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...

* TIMING...The first flake of snow will occur by midday Monday.
The heaviest period of snow will be between 11 PM Monday to 5
AM Tuesday. Snow should taper off by midday Tuesday.

* GENERAL EVENT TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS... Elevations 6000 to
7000 feet: 5 to 10 inches (mainly west of Flagstaff).
Elevations 7000 to 8000 feet: 10 to 13 inches. Elevations
above 8000 feet: 13 to 18 inches.

For the most up to date information consult the point specific
forecast at: WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF.

* SNOWFALL FORECAST FROM 11 AM MST TODAY UNTIL 11 AM MST
Tuesday...

Doney Park 1 to 3 INCHES Flagstaff 5 to 9 INCHES
Williams 5 to 9 INCHES

* OTHER IMPACTS...Gusty winds will develop causing reduced
visibilities in blowing and drifting snow at times during this
event.

 

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
500 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

COZ020-021-272100-
/O.EXB.KGJT.WW.Y.0015.170228T0100Z-170301T0000Z/
Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River-
Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-
500 AM MST Mon Feb 27 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
5 PM MST TUESDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...

The National Weather Service in Grand Junction has issued a
Winter Weather Advisory above 6000 feet for heavy snow, which is
in effect from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Tuesday.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE...Cortez, Dove Creek, and Mancos.

* Timing...Scattered showers today will become widespread late
this afternoon and this evening, continuing overnight. Snow,
heavy at times, will continue into Tuesday night.

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...2 to 6 inches above 6000 feet.

* WINDS...West 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* VISIBILITY...Less than a mile at times in moderate snow and
blowing snow.

* IMPACTS...Moderate snowfall and strong winds will create
hazardous driving conditions.