Considering investing in OSOW

Thanks for your time in the reply. Lots of good info, thanks for sharing your take on it. I need to mull your thoughts over a bit.

 

Same here - good info I need to mull over a bit. Have to run an escort and need to get going. Its a dual-lane 16' wide, 100'+ something steerable trailer, that you can keep adding axles to. Only moves a few times a year, and in this case heading empty to Orlando to move a barge (something Disney has on one of its properties)...more learning opportunities....

Thanks for the reply - will reply better at a later point.

 

Not bad an analogy, I suppose...although, I'd being doing the plane admin work, and occasionally using the mule to move it around and other such. It would really be a partnership with the pilot.

But hell, maybe I'm wrong on all this.

 

Ok, briefly, in no particular order, here is a summary of points that have come from everyone. My next steps will be to clean them up, understand them, determine what can mitigate them or drive another decision.

Friends - don't do it
Drivers - good ones, with skills, hard to find
Drivers - may leave, what's their incentive to stay?
HH - upper echelon of difficulty and risk of most all trucking categories
Equipment - could buy distressed business, instead of used/new from private/dealer

Customers - should have a short list if possible, right at the start
Connections - relationships with brokers/customers cannot be understated

Downtime - bank on it

13-axle - takes a team, even if hired at need

Cash flow - income can be delayed, even by months
Customers - could get a no-pay which could be detrimental or significantly disrupt cash flow

Fleet - don't want a fleet, start with one trailer/truck

Red flags on friend/driver - hasn't anything to prove "credibility"

Business interest - too similar to flipping house mentality of the '07-'08 period?

Don't answer shop - don't ask if not ready for the answer

Risk - Undercutting of rates is serious concern and issue for HH owners, and this primarily seems to come from owners who are in cash trouble - nobody desires to support that possibility

Risk - customers may not gamble on a new outfit - spotty income for a long period of time

Specialize - if possible, specialize in the load types

Costs - may not know actual per-mile costs for a long time

Risk - many newbies fail because of ill-thought (or no) business plan, bad cash flow/decisions/choices

Costs - costs such as route surveys, pilot cars, police escorts, utility company boom trucks, etc. can vary widely, are always high

13-axle - could have significant wait time between loads

Costs - may not know per-mile requirements, may only have fixed overhead cost and a good estimate of the variable costs to complete the project with a realistic time value factored in - go for "all" loads, keep trucking until cash in bank, can be more choosy?

747 - hmmmmmmm, "Local Boy Makes Bank With a Single 747"

 

Yeah, I've been noting the negatives. But that is what I want to see, the negative things I may not be aware of - before I face them head on without any plan B, C or D to deal with them. Too serious to be wearing rose-colored glasses for this.

As for struggling, why are they struggling? My market research thus far indicates for HH a 4% CAGR YOY until 2021 (my latest date thus far) and this recent article suggests there isn't enough capacity for what is available (albeit this article focuses more on larger fleet size companies): Rankings: US Heavy-haul truck revenue jumps

My anecdotal information is the same, a lot of loads are out there albeit maybe pricing and other factors kick in to create struggle. The state's sure could do a better job in getting their permitting acts together, and coordinating with other states to harmonize their requirements across the board. A lot of inefficiencies and/or costs arise from simply meeting a variety of state regulation, it seems to me.