Crude oil is $86 today.... beginning of the end?

yes we are headed back down to a buck a gallon soon ....freight rates will drop to .80 cents a mile

 

Next week it will be back up.

 

Lol sorry OP, but the key part of your worries, "someone told me" and "a few years ago" are exactly why said worries are unfounded.

BTW, anyone employed in the oil industry should be doing at least basic research into industry economics regularly, rather than relying on an outdated rumor mill or what their coworker's friend's mailman's cousin's dog overheard from someone else.

FYI- While oil dropping below say $80-ish can slow down production in some areas, crude can go waaaaaaaaay below that and fracking will still be massively profitable in many areas ($53/barrel average current break even in the Eagle Ford and $59/barrel average current break even in the Permian, for example).

That average break-even number is higher in the Bakken and the Northeast US, but a combination of technology, tax incentives, corporate consolidation, and other major factors are bringing that number lower and lower every fiscal quarter.

In layman's terms, there's nothing to worry about any time soon. (seriously)

Don't take my word for it though, do your own research and alleviate your concerns for good.

 

I read $43 for Permian a few months ago.

 

Where did you read that the average break-even in the Permian is $43? I'd LOVE to see their sources because as low as it's gotten, that sounds like some serious number-fudging going on there.

 

Personally, I believe that we'll see $60/barrel oil soon. I don't have a thing to back up my opinion and I'm not a debater. I do know what cycles are though and feel one coming on. I don't think the price drop will last long and global events could easily prevent the drop. But, I'm sticking with me 60 bucks.

Long term? I wish I had a bank roll to invest if it does hit 60.

 

Obviously oil prices are trending down. It broke through the $85 barrel support which is significant for the techies. It could fall further so the next number will be $77. If it falls through that then who knows.
it could very well fall to $60.
Theres a massive glut and this fall has been on the cards for awhile. I saw a fuel price of $3.24 the other day just south of St. Louis. Should keep falling, so it's all negative. Time will tell if prices will reverse. I doubt it will happen anytime soon. Could see diesel go below $3.00 gal. Now that will be something.

 

Looks like the KeystoneXL pipeline is doomed. Canada is tired of fooling with American politicians and First Nations and is planning to use existing unused gas pipelines to ship the tar sands oil Eastward to the Atlantic side of Canada for shipment overseas.

Quebec will make money since the pipeline runs through that province.

 

I guess Obama can't make his mind up because of carbon emissions that the pipeline will create. I don't think the Chinese or the Russians are too concerned about this issue.