Crude oil is $86 today.... beginning of the end?

Discussion in 'Oilfield Trucking Forum' started by kogaFX, Oct 9, 2014.

  1. Driver5

    Driver5 Light Load Member

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    At least there's that. I've got a big road trip over the holidays to see family, cheap gas is gonna make that a lot more economical.
     
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  3. 4x4_Welder

    4x4_Welder Medium Load Member

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    They were saving money with me, but the dispatcher/manager likes his alcohol a little too much, and when he has a bad day everyone has a bad day. Or at least that's what he was screaming at me out in the lot over some unimportant thing a couple weeks back. Five minutes later I texted the owner and told him I wasn't staying here, still haven't heard back even though I mailed my actual notice last week. No respect for taking their uptime from about 60% to 95%, without massive dealership labor costs.

    WTI is under $60 today.
     
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  4. TLeaHeart

    TLeaHeart Road Train Member

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    And 4 major players announced capex spending cuts of 50% for 2015. (Capital Expenditures) Conoco announces a 20% cut.
     
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  5. 4x4_Welder

    4x4_Welder Medium Load Member

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    Crude haulers will still be good to go, it's services and drillers that will suffer for a bit.
     
  6. bobthesailor

    bobthesailor Light Load Member

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    If they slow the wells down even crude and salt water haulers hours will suffer as there won't be ad much production. Bottom of the totem polers might even get laid off.
     
  7. TLeaHeart

    TLeaHeart Road Train Member

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    crude haulers will also suffer with the drastic fall off in production of horizontal wells... and don't forget, if the producer is taking a loss on the well, they can choke the well back to 10%, to hold the pressure, and keep it producing, or shut the well in.

    And without the need for the extra trucks to take care of the new wells, the need for drivers will be cut quickly.

    All those companies that have huge leveraged debt, will be suddenly closing their doors, and the finance companies will be selling the equipment for what they can get out of it.

    The companies that have been through this before, did not do massive expansions, borrow big chunks of money.... and they will still be around when the dust settles.
     
  8. rollin coal

    rollin coal Road Train Member

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    Is this a good thing for equipment prices? Was looking at truckpaper today and cannot believe the high prices I'm seeing on mostly '09 and up used trucks. Not very many '07 or older to choose from anymore. Lots of '11, '12, and '13 with 100,000 to 300,000 miles. Is that the new norm trade in cycle with big companies so they can avoid excessive downtime and unload junk on 2nd buyers? I can't believe anyone is paying prices I see for these newer used trucks. I guess they're selling like hot cakes.
     
  9. Arky

    Arky Heavy Load Member

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    Could be. If the trucks wind up on the block, they will likely get cheap...as well as the trailers. Most of this equipment is spec'd for the oil fields and not all that suitable for re-assignment to other applications. If a guy needed a good dump truck chassis or something to pull a local rock trailer or log trailer, these trucks would be set up great for something like that...as long as fuel mileage isn't a huge concern.

    I'm not sure how much of that we'll see though. I think this could get pretty ugly short term, but long term, I think the oil prices will pop back up and keep most of the trucks rolling. The companies that can weather a few months of slow business without folding will be fine...I think.
     
  10. 77fib77

    77fib77 Road Train Member

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    The tractor can do otherthings, it just has a PTO pump. A single compartment oil trailer, I don't know what else you can do with it.

    We get rid of our trucks when they hit 200k miles. Funny thing they are Pete's and now we have international s. The Pete's are nicer at 197k than a 100k international.

    The old timers I work with. Tell me first Frac sand haulers lose there jobs. Then the Flatbedders for hauling pipe and rigs. Third water trucks get hours cut way back. Oil haulers instead of five loads you get three. Instead of 250 a day it is 150 gross.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2014
  11. cplmac2

    cplmac2 Heavy Load Member

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    Few things of note, first Conoco has announced a 20% CapEx cut but they are also winding down a couple major projects which is accounting for a good chunk of that. Second, I pulled three wells selling to Conoco here in the Bakken yesterday, the two wells in the 3 Forks were full speed ahead and the Bakken well is being choked back. Lastly all the permits and money for 2015 are a done deal, it's going to be a year or so before massive cuts register at least with the big boys. Almost forgot, talked to a pipeline guy today and he told me they are building a refinery south of Minot at 23/83, if that's true it could shield the Bakken from OPEC if the refinery is big enough. Will be an interesting year for sure, but I think it's too soon to bail out.
     
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