Rates are starting to skyrocket already

Their MC number starts with an 8. Probably not. Also they called me.

 

Inbound rates into Memphis have always been cheap. At least in the 30 years I have been doing this. Memphis is way heavy on Outbound versus Inbound freight. Always a cheap hauler looking to get back to Memphis.

There are DA's hauling 45k from Dallas to Memphis. 450 miles for $500-550.

 

That's definitely true. It's not like I got good market to bad market for sub 3 bucks a mile... Still I was a little bit surprised.

 

Hate to be a pessimist and I know the good times are rolling, but when a 3.00 jumper to Memphis becomes laughable I can't help but think there are going to be alot of used trucks on the market in the very near future. Lol. Hasn't been too long ago I would deadhead 350 in a heartbeat just to get to Memphis.

 

Yeah if you'd told me this is what rates would be in July 2018 in July 2016 I probably would have laughed at you. I'd have made a joke about sugarcandy mountain most likely. I hate to disappoint anyone who thinks this is normal or will last forever, but this is literally the best of times in a very cyclical business.

EDIT: I'll be the first to admit that a large amount of this price jump has been ELD's. I won't lie they had a much bigger impact than I thought they would. Still despite that we were eventually going to find a top, and when we hit that top the prices were probably going to immediately drop 10-15% to figure out what trucks will ACTUALLY run for. This is all super normal, has happened before, and will happen again. A lot is going to depend on the economy over the next 6-12 months too. If the economy stays good the prices will probably stay up.

Also I really don't want to be seen like I'm calling a top here. It could totally bounce off this low point and run up another 50% lol.

 

Was that a van load or reefer? DAT shows that lane at $862 for vans and $1,257 for reefers the past 15 days. I'm not seeing all of these gold rush rates everyone's excited about. I'm seeing a lot of rates that are about where they should have been for the past several years but nothing anyone should get excited about. There's a disconnect between you guys sitting behind that computer screen all day and those of us out here actually doing the hard work.

I'm curious how others would view this, some broker from BNSF calls last night at 8pm with 3 pallets AL-MO going to I think he said Boeing. It was super hot they wanted it at 6am sharp the next morning but he said as long as they got it before 8am they would be fine. So deadhead 50 miles, pickup, then drive all night another 500 miles. He acted like $2,000 was great money. How many of you agree with that? How many of you office people would hop into the cab of a truck after all day at the office and drive that one about 10 extra hours on an already 10 hour day or so? Would you do that for $2,000? That's hard work and after expenses eating into that $2,000 it ain't much left to show for busting that ### all red eyed and weary. Now if I had a fleet of trucks and was sloughing that off on some other schlub to drive all night ehhh $2,000 is probably pretty good, not great, really kind of ordinary for what is being asked, and knowing the customer on the other end has such deep pockets, but yeah if I was keeping some trucks moving that might be OK.

 

The rate was fine, there was just 12 hours missing in my world. Sounds like the dude bent his own self over the barrel and time was ticking. I don't do late and likewise I don't do not getting paid.

 

So you wake up at around 7 pm refreshed and ready to roll out on that after sleeping soundly all day long? The disconnect is among drivers too. That rate was terrible for the critical need and late hour.

 

I don't think we will see the top until the fall season gets underway. I think we will see the highest rates in history followed by a slow decline. All of the people buying trucks to capitalize on these high rates is going to create an over capacity situation come winter. I think we will see rates fall back to more normal levels early next year.