Do you guys think it's worth staying hotshot these days?

When I started the rates were kinda crappy all around so it wasn't a big difference between running a hotshot truck vs a semi. However, rates for semis are astronomical right now and they've been holding for some time. I thought the rates would eventually drop back down but they haven't.

Example.. I was out in Kanas City last week.. trying to pice together either cars or freight to go with a mini-excavator I had booked. I looked at the Van/Reefer market and there were loads going from KSC to OKC paying $1,7k.. That's less than 400 miles.. A return trip was $900 still slightly over $2/mile..

If you look at loads out of Cali.. they are paying $8-9k for cross country.. It's nothing to get a $6k load out of Cali these days for Van or Reefer and that used to be a "good" rate.. Even here in FL I was looking at Van & Reefer and there are $2/mile loads leaving FL. I mean there is a whole page of $2,5k loads out of FL. That used to be unheard of at least when I drove a semi..

I've been waiting for these rates to trickle down to the HS market but it just seems the brokers are now using HS to move cheap freight. Yeah, you might see the occasional good rate but it's nothing like the semi are getting.

I don't really want to do a semi again, but looking at the rates they are getting it seems stupid to stay with hotshot right now. I like the ease of getting cars and COD's but the rates have not gone up on them as everything else has. Even full dedicated HS loads are barely paying $2/mi if you are lucky.

Anyone else thinking the same? That HS is kinda a dead game right now when comparing rates the Semi's are getting?

 

Rates are dropping like flies. Load volume is down more then 75% from what I see in southeast/Mid Atlantic/ North east. Then again I don’t think $2 a mile is impressive at all. Neither is $1700 on 400 miles for a reefer. If you look at the time that’s going to be involved. You are a hot shotter so I don’t find this post surprising to say the least.

 

Dude, I drove semi's in the past. Granted was at a mega but you weren't getting $3 & 4 mile out of Cali in 2017 or 2016. This is all because of the pandemic and shortage of trucks because so many outfits went out of business during the trade war. They've never replaced the truck capacity since the dumb trade war put 1000's of trucks and drivers off the road.

Everyone everywhere is crying about shortages. As long as there are shortages the rates will stay high.

 

Within the last month, rates have fell off significantly and load volume is down 75% and capacity is becoming over saturated. If you dont Believe me that’s fine.

 

I think it takes more than 1 month to determine if capacity is oversaturated. I keep tabs on a broker's freight board to see what they are saying and they are still crying for trucks.

edt..

This was from the 15th so 10 days ago... Rates in Sept are above rates from Aug so the industry trend doesn't seem to be seeing what you are saying. Maybe the rates dropped in the last week but I don't buy 75% drop in loads.. No one else is saying that..


DAT.com reports truckload rates remain steady. DAT’s September 13th Trendlines Report shows current national van rate averages are at $2.84 per mile, an $.09 increase from the August average. According to DAT, the highest average van rates are in the Midwest at $2.99 per mile. The lowest average van rates are in the Northeast at $2.53 per mile.

DAT reports the current national load-to-truck ratio is 6.22 loads to truck, compared to the August 22nd average of 6.40. Ratios are high from the Great Lakes states, and central plains. The lowest ratios are in the Southeast and desert Southwest.

 

What's your plan when rates do drop again and that truck you spent however much getting a hold of in this market is worth half what you have in it? The rates could drop tomorrow or they could hang in here for another year.
How can rates stay high if you have shortages of freight available to move? I ordered a stepdeck in March, it's still sitting waiting for one part and they don't know when it'll be available. Car manufacturers have seriously cut back or stopped certain lines altogether due to lack of parts availability.
Brokers will be crying for trucks when rates are 1.25 too, take what brokers say with a grain of salt. Not to mention that when fuel is anywhere from 3 to 4.50 a gallon 3 dollars a mile isn't all that hot.

 

That's the same story with the truck and equipment I have now. Rates can drop with what I'm hauling now but the reality is they never raised up.. HS rates never saw much of an increase overall compared to other freight and cars certainly didn't. I mean at certain times through the pandemic rates for cars in FL went crazy but it was only a few months now it's back to them trying to pay .50-.60/mile

 

How close are you to payed off on the equipment you have now? Have you looked at the prices of a decent truck now? If you want Cali legal you're talking an easy 60k for something that isn't ragged out and high miled. My dad sold his old 2000 Wabash flatbed for 5k a few months ago, I wouldn't have given 100 a ton for it it was so beat.

 

I have a new truck that I just bought this year that was $50k.. However, I've been offered by the dealer that they will buy it back from me due to the chip shortage hence one of the reasons I was thinking of going the Semi route. My trailer is a 25k 40ft flat trailer they sell like hotcakes right now so not even concerned about not being able to sell that.

Getting out of my equipment right now is the easy part because everything has gone up so much and is in short supply. The issue is if I want to buy a Semi, it's a tough choice which way to go. On one hand, I'd like to stay as far away as possible from newer emission trucks. Then on the other hand it takes a while to find the "right" older used truck. Yet if going newer it's easier to get into a newer used truck without using up valuable cash because it can be financed.

 

You can finance an older truck too, simply a matter of finding the right bank. The issue with going newer emmissions truck is the whole Russian roulette of if it's been taken care of, does it have fewer miles because it's spent it's whole life in the shop.
If I were to buy an older truck today I'd be more concerned with the shape the frame and body is in than the motor, it's a lot cheaper to rebuild the motor and throw a reman tranny in than get it looking decent and be something that doesn't scream look at my crusty old turd going through the scales.