Waiting on New Trucks thread.

I think most of the people that ordered Volvo or Mack was for upgrading in fuel improvement. I would guess Volvo and Mack will take a bigger piece of the pie in the next couple years because of this. Especially with the new I-Torque being offered now.

 

My Peterbilt salesman at a Rush dealer told me the same thing. Their allotment was cut again this year and they expect another supply crunch this year and used truck pricing to improve later in the year as a result. He only has order slots open in Q4. My KW told me I could get one in Q3. I just find it amazing we are almost 3 years into this and still have supply shortages. I tend to believe the shortage is more the manufacturers decision to keep supply low to keep pricing power.

 

I would bet it is more from not being able to get good labor. To many people want hand outs still,I see a lot of these manufacturing companies are hiring. Just like everything no one wants to work so they can only produce what they can with the labor they have.

 

Nothing will change until the industry overhauls their supply chain strategy. We are witnessing the worst case scenario, yet all the industry leaders are saying just wait this will get better. These sorts of things tend to run in 12-18 month cycles. We're now into the 3rd year with very little to point at and call an improvement.

These seeds have been sown for the last 40 years of globalism. Everything from offshore production to domestic production efficiency to labor has looked good on paper, but was never sustainable in the long run. Robbing Peter to pay Paul. It could be fixed with domestic manufacturing, but that's a 5-7 year ramp up, and requires favorable outlook that won't happen in at least the next 2-3 years, to encourage investment. The grift has run out of runway to continue.

 

It must be. There's nothing about those trucks to be worth over $200k.
Or dry vans to be still at $62k. Even if you factor in inflation. But that's also the effect of EIDL loans issued in 2020, without which these prices and availability would be much different than what it is today.

I spoke to a couple of Volvo dealers too and they ended the conversation about new allotments quickly but instead want to push some used junk for over $100k.
Rates are not improving, and they will get worse at the end of January. 2 dol a mile will be quick takers. It's been not even a year yet, since the good period ended, and people are not weary of running on average at 2.5 dol per mile just yet.
i predict that by the end of this year and at the latest by 2nd quarter of 2024, new dealer specd trucks will be available to anyone who wants them right off their lots without any waiting lists or allotment B.S.
Also, I know a couple of fleet owners who told me that they were already called by various dealers with sale or lease offers, and if there is a buyer who gets cold feet, they are first to call.

 

Hopefully they get it all figured out within 3 years so when I am ready to get my next new one it will be easy and fast.

 

In 3 years, there may be another euphoric mood in place.
But for the last one to cool off completely, it must take more than the last 8-9 months.

 

It seems any trucks hitting the lot now are moving pretty good and not sitting but I assume the buyers are like me who don’t want to pay 10% more for a 2024 model. Once the 2024’s start hitting the lot let’s see how fast they move at the higher price point. There is no economic reason a 2024 should be 10% higher than a 2023 beyond greed.

 

There is a reason: inflation. The same dollar buys 10% less value, so they mark up the price to keep themselves whole. The only greed in the equation is the laundering of all that newly printed money causing your dollars to have less value.

 

There's no doubt on my mind that these trucks are overpriced because of the irrational demand that started in 4th qtr of 2020. If you look at big rig market here, there isn't really too much of real competition. It must be super easy for them to set prices and comfortably relax.