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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

Discussion in 'Truckers News' started by VTSharpshooter, Apr 26, 2016.

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FLYMIKEXL Medium Load Member

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VTSharpshooter said: ↑

The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

A convoy of self-driving trucks recently drove across Europe and arrived at the Port of Rotterdam. No technology will automate away more jobs — or drive more economic efficiency — than the driverless truck.

Shipping a full truckload from L.A. to New York costs around $4,500 today, with labor representing 75 percent of that cost. But those labor savings aren’t the only gains to be had from the adoption of driverless trucks.

Where drivers are restricted by law from driving more than 11 hours per day without taking an 8-hour break, a driverless truck can drive nearly 24 hours per day. That means the technology would effectively double the output of the U.S. transportation network at 25 percent of the cost.

And the savings become even more significant when you account for fuel efficiency gains. The optimal cruising speed from a fuel efficiency standpoint is around 45 miles per hour, whereas truckers who are paid by the mile drive much faster. Further fuel efficiencies will be had as the self-driving fleets adopt platooning technologies, like those from Peloton Technology, allowing trucks to draft behind one another in highway trains.

Trucking represents a considerable portion of the cost of all the goods we buy, so consumers everywhere will experience this change as lower prices and higher standards of living.

While the efficiency gains are too real to pass up, the technology will have tremendous adverse effects as well.
In addition, once the technology is mature enough to be rolled out commercially, we will also enjoy considerable safety benefits. This year alone more people will be killed in traffic accidents involving trucks than in all domestic airline crashes in the last 45 years combined. At the same time, more truck drivers were killed on the job, 835, than workers in any other occupation in the U.S.

Even putting aside the direct safety risks, truck driving is a grueling job that young people don’t really want to do. The average age of a commercial driver is 55 (and rising every year), with projected driver shortages that will create yet more incentive to adopt driverless technology in the years to come.

While the efficiency gains are real — too real to pass up — the technology will have tremendous adverse effects as well. There are currently more than 1.6 million Americans working as truck drivers, making it the most common job in 29 states.

The loss of jobs representing 1 percent of the U.S. workforce will be a devastating blow to the economy. And the adverse consequences won’t end there. Gas stations, highway diners, rest stops, motels and other businesses catering to drivers will struggle to survive without them.

The demonstration in Europe shows that driverless trucking is right around the corner. The primary remaining barriers are regulatory. We still need to create on- and off-ramps so human drivers can bring trucks to the freeways where highway autopilot can take over. We may also need dedicated lanes as slow-moving driverlesstrucks could be a hazard for drivers. These are big projects that can only be done with the active support of government. However, regulators will be understandably reluctant to allow technology with the potential to eliminate so many jobs.

Yet the benefits from adopting it will be so huge that we can’t simply outlaw it. A 400 percent price-performance improvement in ground transportation networks will represent an incredible boost to human well-being. Where would we be if we had banned mechanized agriculture on the grounds that most Americans worked in farming when tractors and harvesters were introduced in the early 20th century?

We often discuss the displacement of jobs by artificial intelligence and robots in the abstract, as something that we’ll have to eventually tackle in the far distant future. But the recent successful demonstration of the self-driving truck shows that we can’t afford to put off the conversation on how we’re going to adapt to this new reality.
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#### the automated trucks where is my floating hoverboard!!!! And the flying cars??? and the jacket with the built in dryer so if I fell in water I'd be dry in minutes?

FLYMIKEXL, Apr 26, 2016

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peterd and Bean Jr. Thank this.
tinytim Road Train Member

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The optimal cruising speed from a fuel efficiency standpoint is around 45 miles per hour...
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Prime Drivers, don't believe that. Please.

tinytim, Apr 26, 2016

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peterd and FLYMIKEXL Thank this.
rpad139 Heavy Load Member

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The ripple effect would be negative if trucks were automated. Truckers spend money on food, movies, casinos, drinks, souvenirs, gadgets, etc....

Might as well just let robots take over the world. Whatever happened to the beauty of human interaction that a robot can never replace.
I would rather have my freight delivered by a driver that can brighten up my day with a funny joke or story. Unfortunately that is a rare thing to see these days with all the stress out there in the world.

rpad139, Apr 26, 2016

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tinytim Road Train Member

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There's a place we go that has automated fork lifts. They use them to stage the loads and put them on the racks. Manually operated ones are used to put the load on the truck and take it off.

Not sure if the automated ones could actually load a truck or not but they operate in a very controlled environment.

tinytim, Apr 26, 2016

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truckthatpassesyouby Road Train Member

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rpad139 said: ↑

The ripple effect would be negative if trucks were automated. Truckers spend money on HOOKERS, BOOZE, COKE, BURRITOS food, movies, casinos, drinks, souvenirs, gadgets, etc..
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truckthatpassesyouby, Apr 26, 2016

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rpad139 Thanks this.
rpad139 Heavy Load Member

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Yes can't forget about those hookers, booze, coke, and burritos. If anyone would like to add MEANINGFUL items to the list please feel free to do so.

rpad139, Apr 26, 2016

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truckthatpassesyouby Thanks this.
truckthatpassesyouby Road Train Member

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Ok I heard in a documentary that truck makers are interested in the autonomous technology because of the connectivity features they could use that would create a network amongst trucks to help increase fuel efficiency by platooning, reduce traffic by cooperatively sharing traffic movement and redirecting fleets on the fly, and by reducing the risk of accidents by removing problem drivers.

truckthatpassesyouby, Apr 26, 2016

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LGarrison Road Train Member

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I just wonder why he posted the same thing 3 times

LGarrison, Apr 26, 2016

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Dominick253 Thanks this.
Dominick253 Heavy Load Member

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Can't wait. Then I can work on finding a better job... Or become a homeless bum.

Dominick253, Apr 26, 2016

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skellr Thanks this.
TripleSix God of Roads

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LGarrison said: ↑

I just wonder why he posted the same thing 3 times
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"Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!!!"

TripleSix, Apr 26, 2016

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