Double Yellow's Company Driver to Independent Thread

I finished my career propping on small #### sites because I couldn’t beat the rake at 100nl anymore... and was a losing player higher. I actually consider poker to be one of my bigger mistakes lol. Just in the sense that I skipped the beginning and stayed too long at the end.

Thankfully there is life after poker and I’m a much better freight guy than I ever was a poker player.

EDIT: And yes BFI is a great subforum and yes you would fit right in there. If nothing else read the real estate investing thread. It's pretty epic.

 

I concur. Table selection is critical for making money at poker. An ideal table has plenty of fish and few "Rocks".

The Moneymaker Effect coincided nicely with the boom in easy credit. That made for juicy tables up until 2008. The drop off was dramatic after that. Credit card limits were cut and folks lost their jobs.

It wasn't uncommon to get seated with over 30 maximum buy ins at a NL table before 2008. After that it was rare to see over 15 MBI's at a table. The Fish to Rock ratio hit the skids.

You either had to change your game or start draining your stack to the blinds. Being a by the numbers Rock didn't cut it anymore. The best way to make money was to front yourself as a Fish to put Rocks on tilt, then shift gears and Rock Up to get an edge. But that was risky and could put a dent in your bankroll if the cards didn't fall right.

I sustained my family with live action cash NL for a year back in 2011-2012. Then over the course of four months my bankroll got wiped out in six monster hands. I got all in with overwhelming advantages in the flop every time and lost. Runner runner flush or better full house and BAM! There goes a four digit pot.

That's why I got back into trucking.

 

Yeah bankroll management is a pretty serious issue. I moved on to being a prop after running 150 BI's under EV over a 75k hand stretch at 100-200nl that pretty much put me in subsistence mode. Then six months later black friday put the final nail in the coffin.

The good thing about poker for me was that it taught me to not be results oriented and think analytically on a deeper level. It also made me massively emotionally stable vs normal people when things are going badly... which obviously helped a lot with my current line of work.

EDIT: But hey at least I didn't have any money on FT!!!

 

I don’t know what in autodidact is. So I will go and research that. Maybe that’s your evidence that I am…one of those.

I do have a business background. I’ve been failing in business for about 23 years now. I think I’m about due for some success this month, so I scheduled my first truck purchase for a couple weeks from now.

Long term, I’ve got big plans. Definitely some Commercial Real Estate (I have some experience failing in real estate, too!) growing my fleet, maybe taking advantage of the shortage of parking space, and maybe patenting a cool trucking lifestyle gadget or two. I’ve been unhappy, and I’ve been happy, and I’ve been poor the whole time. I’m gonna try out being rich and unhappy for a little while. With any luck, I’ll be rich and happy… At least some of the time.

 

BFI?

 

I was able to weather the initial poker downturn in 08-09 by playing overnight against Asians and Europeans who were just then learning poker (funny how some American fads take a couple years to spread overseas). But the Chinese quickly took over those games.

I don't know if they were bots or a sweatshop of kids taught to play exactly a certain way, but for a while they were extremely exploitable (things like they would almost always instafold to min 3bets). They'd have 100s of different names, but with PokerTracker you could instantly recognize their playing style stats.

Unfortunately they eventually improved and I didn't lol

I hear that. I'd have a Cayman S if only the Porsche dealer accepted Sklansky bucks...

You think "Oh, I ran really bad, but it'll turn around and I'll run good and make up for it." But that is the classic gambler's fallacy - you should always expect to run about average. The best you can expect is that if you play long enough, eventually your bad stretch will seem insignificant in comparison to your career winnings...

Agreed. Like the way I analyze a stock is essentially the same as a poker hand: (post 1122: CFI Driver's What's Your 20? (2017 edition) )
There is X% chance of one outcome, plus Y% chance of another plus Z% chance of yet another. The sum of those gives you the expected value...

But you almost never read research reports where stock analysts use that framework. Instead they just list expected earnings under the most likely of many scenarios and value the company from that one possible outcome. It's silly.

Ha, yeah it basically teaches you to be a psychopath when it comes to money, which is very useful in business.

The other useful thing I learned were some poker tells. Now generally I think the usefulness of tells at the poker table is wildly exaggerated, especially in movies. But there are two that I've found extremely useful in "real life."

Tell Number 1: Body language mismatch
The easiet to spot for me is when the head motion says one thing while the mouth says another. The classic example is Clinton's denail:


a) His head nods yes (slightly) when he says he did not have sexual relations with "that woman." Body language and voice don't match so he's probably lying.
b) His head shakes "no" when he says he did not tell anyone to lie. This is may be true (body language and voice both are in agreement "no").
c) His head nods "yes" (again slightly) when he says "these allegations are false." Body language says one thing ("yes"), verbal language says another ("false") -- probably a lie.

another famous example:

*note that if the body and verbal language match, someone can still be lying, especially if they are a skilled liar. But they pretty much never mismatch when someone is telling the truth.

Other examples are things like when someone's feet are pointed towards you (or the poker action), but they are pretending to be uninterested by also leaning back or turning away. Don't be fooled, they're very interested!

Tell number 2: Self-comforting gestures
This one is a little more nuanced because you need to have a baseline for what a person typically does. But the gist is that when someone suddenly starts using their hands to comfort themselves they are probably unsure and not in a position of strength. If you're trying to buy something, you can probably get a better price. If you're trying to sell something, you may be at their limit. If you're in a poker hand, they might be bluffed off easily (or might not call a larger value bet).

Examples include: *unconsciously* stroking their own face/beard, rubbing their neck, rubbing their hands, their nose, etc. Sometimes they literally cross their arms as if they are giving themselves a hug.

 

As a dealer, I could appreciate players who knew how to spot tells and understood the psychology of the game. But I didn't like how people would break the rules to manipulate the action. It got old dealing with the same players acting out of turn, or trying to make them understand you can't call and raise at the same time.

The main reason I quit dealing, though, was because of how the game changed people. Some of the coolest, nicest players slowly transformed into bitter, angry people.

 

There's a third, HUGE area of tells I exploited: the micro expression. They last well under a second, a quick frown or smile. They are less likely to be controllable. I sometimes used them myself as false signals to get a call.

 

I laughed out loud at your post. The classic "I call AND I RAISE!" Nothing is funnier than a newbie at the table that doesn't understand that it ain't like bad movies.

In regards to your time as a dealer:

Thank you for your service.

The double entendre is intentional.

 

anyone know or heard a price range for selling one's authority with a clean as can be 15 month authority and an S corp with it?