POSSIBLE RECESSION and starting as and Owner Operator?

Yeppers, it's life on all levels. Sheat happens.

 

Ok i thank everyone for the input.
BUT WHAT I MEAN IS, IS IT STILL A GOOD IDEA FOR ME TO BUY A TRUCK FOR THE FIRST TIME THE WAY THINGS ARE GOING. BUSINESS IS GOOD OR BAD.
CAN THINGS GO BAD FOR ME AS FAR AS TRUCKING ISSUES IN GENERAL ARE GOING.
THANK YOU GUYS AND HAPPY NEW YEAR

 

LOL this thread went sideways.

How much money you got? What’s your credit score? I don’t see a recession coming but there is an over supply of trucks on the road which is lowering rates.

You want your own authority or lease on? I say go for it if your prepared. If not keep saving. Ideally you would have bought a truck about 18 months ago but you can fail during any market. In fact if you start during bad times and you make it, it’ll make you a better company in the long haul. The guys that start during the good times have a false sense of security and are more likely to go broke during the bad times as they have no idea how to hustle and save.

 

You have to answer that question. Things can always go bad for anyone.

 

I think it really depends on how much money you have and how much overhead you have.

Are you in a situation that you could weather a few bad weeks and if you had a breakdown on top of that that was kind of costly could you survive that or would that put you under?

Do you live a lifestyle that everything that you own is paid off, or do you have a wife that walks around in diamonds and Cadillacs and 10 children that you're paying for college and a gigantic house with a gigantic mortgage and cars and motorcycles and credit cards all unpaid?

Obviously, the less overhead that you have the better your chances are and also that you have enough cash and credit to get you through whatever you need to.

Basically, if you are in a situation that you can't function unless you are making more than you currently are, then don't do it. If you are in a situation that you'll be able to save what you make with your own truck then your odds are good. And with your truck it's not a question of if but when you'll have to put out $10,000 or more. Be careful what you buy cuz sometimes that happens sooner rather than later.

 

I understand you’re trying to make an educated guess. That’s all anyone can do. No one knows. I started out on late 04. Had 1 good year and about 6 bad years with freight tonnage falling 5 consecutive years. That’s never happened before.( since 1930s Probably). The only real risk is paying Top dollar for equipment now versus in a recession. All other things being equal.Even that would be temporary. As would a normal recession. Recessions have to happen for Capitalism to succeed overall. Leans out the system. I agree with everything said,Keeping the debt Load light is #1 priority. IMO so you can have a choice in the future.keeping options open, not getting stuck in Trucking or worse ruining Credit.I went through all that in it’s worse form and survived.What I say is if you want to buy a Truck do it. If you’re just kinda thinking about it hoping to make better money. Think twice. As far as freight even at its lowest, I worked a lot while others were getting lees miles and laid off.14 yrs only laid over a few times. There’s always a load just at a lower rate

 

Your ####### right!!! I loved that comment!!!!

 

Personally, I don't think it's a great time to get in. Not that I think the economy is going to take a downturn anytime soon, but growth has got to slow.

I've seen this show before. Things are good, and everybody and their brother goes out and buys a truck. Things slow down and most of the people that got in went broke.

I'm pretty well connected to the local dump truck business, I used to help my brother in the business, and my good friend runs 6 trucks. During normal times around 10-15 dump trucks can cover the local market. Seems in the last year anybody that can get a class B has bought a dump. There are around 30 trucks currently in the local market. As I've said, I've seen this cycle before. Things will slow down, and you'll have 30 trucks covering a market for 15. At first, prices will drop like a rock, while everybody just tries to make payments, then they will start going broke. The market will settle with the same old timers still there to cover the 10-15 truck market. Now a newcomer can make a go of this upswing in the market, but you have to get in at a good deal so you can get back out when needed. You can't go in with a new truck that will depreciate like a rock and up to your eyeballs in debt, you'll be bankrupt. The national market works much the same way, just on a much larger scale.

 

That's just it.....businesses will have lower taxes but that's not going to create jobs. That's just what the powers that be tell the gullible. With those tax cuts, the folks at the top are only going to pocket those savings. They are not even thinking about the small man. Even after this current era ends, jobs will still be outsourced and technology will talked over in manufacturing. Those jobs aren't coming back, these powers that be fooled everyone into thinking that