Statistic charts showing it is the WORST time to become an O/O

Rates crashing, complete collapse.



Mad rush of fleets coming in and flooding the market



used truck prices continue to skyrocket.

 

Man, you just can't get enough. You should open one of those doom and gloom YouTube channels

 

Megas are loving it according to a article I read recently they have made huge increases to their profit line by selling their used trucks.. some were saying they ran the trucks for 500,000 miles and recouped full cost on resale . As far as mom and pop operators who bought them it’s on them that they bought the trucks at a price that’s probably not sustainable for a small operation long term.

 

I've taken to listening to doomtube as a hobby. Peter Schiff, a few silver pushers, Jeremiah Babe (the guy pictured), Hersey Financial, Stoic Finance etc. It's a hell of a rabbit hole that's for sure.

 

Used truck prices will stay high up until inventory comes back. Everyone acts like it’s one guy going out and paying that much for his first truck. Nobody figures in the fact that despite the high prices some people have to purchase trucks to service their customers and when they can’t get their new ones they buy used.

 

Honestly ive said it before, ill say it again.

Im not that concerned honestly. The smart O/Os will mostly be fine. We will lose a few to out of their control situations but we do that even when rates are at record highs. The smart ones either bought a truck at a sustainable level. Or they have an account where equipment prices dont really mean anything other then a few points on a paycheck even if the rates bottom out.

Frankly this happens all the time historically. The high debt low income bearly keeping the truck on the road sorts will mostly starve out or learn to deal. Those of us who are low debt high income will tighten our belts and keep on rolling and the no debt can fixitmyself types will keep on racking in dollars hand over fist or just retire oit to their giant nesteggs.

Keep in mind even during the great depression freight needed moving and crap needed delivering and consumers needed stuff.

 

Interesting.

Chart 1.

Who is hauling for $2.08/ mile ? I’ve got $9.75 a mile on the deck now for 600 miles total, 300 loaded, 300 empty.



Chart 2.

Doesn’t account for fleets exiting the industry.
I don’t see increased competition in my field.

Chart 3.

That’s just 3 year old equipment. What about the entire range of used equipment?

I hate to respond to this topic, because I need to remain humble as much as possible - but as @Arctic_fox said - well, he pretty much nailed it.

 

Data was from here

Freight Forecasting Platform - Freight Data - FreightWaves SONAR

300 loaded mile load $5850?
You're not telling the whole story.
Normally loads like that are oversize at a minimum and in a hot area.

 

###### - you caught me fibbing. It’s$4850 - so $8.08 all miles. My apologies, fat fingered the calculator.

It’s barely oversize, one permit between 2 states. And in a notoriously cold area, swamped with mega fleet coverage.

I understand and trust your data source, but it’s not relevant to the success in this industry that some of us quietly attempt to scream on here.

 

I had to turn down a similar paying load last week so I could babysit.
There is still good freight out there but these guys with equipment that they paid double for and need cash will take anything, till they find out you can’t run fast enough to overcome cheap rates.