How's it looking out in the patch?

You are going to meet big challenges.

Saudi Arabia just destroyed Opec very recently. They intend to overpump to the max and slash pricing 12 dollars or more below Brent and all others. The goal is to punish shale, particularly Russia.

In the next three months we expect 20 dollar oil or even less. Possibly half that when combined with the no demand since the nations like China stopped taking in ships of oil. There is like 50 full tankers parked off Singapore holding.

We'll have cheap gas. But the rig count is expected to fall even more in the USA very fast if not already.

In Natural Gas, we have a world of it and no place to sell or burn it all. Possibly the Midwestern Power Plants will burn it when if they get a hot summer cranking air conditionings. MAYBE. Even if we cut price to like a dollar per MMCCF no one wants it now coming out of winter. So we are stuck with it.

There are only two possibilities that will create demand. All out war or a big time disaster. Like a quake dropping california or worse the west coast into the ocean.

 

Its good to ask. I know nothing from the fields other than what I can gather with rig counts etc. Where I am its fayetteville gas play supporting a 5th pipeline east coast. So rig counts are down, gas trucks not rolling much at night and so on.

In good times they pass by every 10 minutes. Not tonight. There is a treatment facility on 64 for well left overs or whatever they are called to process that kind of liquid.

 

OPEC deal collapse sparks price war: '$20 oil in 2020 is coming'

 

I’ll give two impressions: What I see on the ground hauling crude oil in West Texas and my interpretation of what’s causing it.

1) Pumpers are starting to slow production due to lower oil prices which is starting to effect my hours. One day in every five workdays I’m now told to take off because there’s nothing to haul. Thank God I’ve got a healthy bank of Paid Time Off to fill in the gaps.

2) COVID-19 is killing aggregate demand. There is abject panic in some places causing a dramatic reduction in economic activity. That drop in activity reflects in the drop in oil prices.

Into this slowdown there are geopolitical issues between countries being aired out. Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s oil production facilities about six months ago using drones. Saudi Arabia never responded military but looks like they’re going to take the opportunity of the expiring OPEC production agreement to strike back economically at what they believe is an already weakened Iran in an attempt to topple their government.

With the combination of COVID-19’s effect on Iran’s third world medical system and the unbalanced prominence of oil in Iran’s economy there’s a very real chance that might happen.

 

Russia and OPEC are feuding and cant agree to cut production. West Texas crude just hit the lowest price since the Gulf war in 1991.

 

I reckon lots of people there will be out of a job pretty soon. Not a good time to be there

 

Lower than that as time goes by.

Everyone will be celebrating cheap fuel if the virus does not close everything down by then.

Russia intends to out pump Saudi. (And she will.... by far... which means CHEAPER fuel for all)

So if you are in that field or any field now, get out before you are shown the door. Some of the companies like FANG are getting butchered so much that they must fail themselves.