Market Predictions

The first quarter gonna be horrendous, especially March. Then it's gonna be survival mode either until Q4 or spring 2024
I think a bunch of midsize carriers will collapse next year, especially those with a big exposure to spot market.

 

Generally
Subpar xmas season, 20-30% off "normal years"
slow start to the year, 15% down over normal years
As feb starts, tons of wrecks from the people that shouldnt be driving lowering capacity further causing a slight uptick in market freight come marchish, as april comes in, a lot of bankruptcies/tax filings putting people out of buisness, cheap trucks, trailers, lower capacity translating to better freight rates,

towards nov, "stabilization" of freight market due to rates not being terrible and those that could stick it out or knew how to run a buisness in lean times.

End of 2023, 3$ is the new normal rate
Now, this all assumes:
1. diesel stays roughly near 4.50-5.50$/ gal
2. Theres no massive uptick in civil unrest across the world that we go sticking our noses in, or with say china that makes the supply chain even more unstable
3. Theres no actual collapse of the stock market (i'd allow for 1/5th the size of 2008 for my predictions to stay somewhat accurate)
4. The us rail workers dont grow a pair and ACTUALLY strike. Theyre getting frustrated, it could get BAD if they (unions) go on a real offensive, not these tepid little "please sir may i have some more" flirtations with shutdowns.
5. The fed stops continuing the interest rate hikes

Theres a LOT that could upend things, but i think 3$ a mile by end of year with SOME amount of stability seems reasonable, inflation plus current fuel cost makes that liveable, but not great, same as it ever was, 3$ today is the same as $2 four years ago. (Rates expressed in average "going rate" trucking companies will accept in otr van spot rates) some small variation for flat, reefer.

Or we could be at 1$ freight and 4$ fuel for the next 2 years or much higher rates or a complete societal collapse based on the above 5 variables i required for my initial predictions.

Any way you cut it, its uncertain

 

Business as usual

 

Like the coyote and the rabbit, it's all cycles.

Freight up, trucks prosper
Rabbits up, coyote lives high

 

Slow/down now to Q2 2023 when we see upward swings in volume and rates, but only towards a baseline for the rest of 2023. I’m with @skallagrime that by the end of next year rates will be trending more towards $3 per mile being what $2 per mile has been for the past decade as carriers will have to raise rates to cover massive increase in costs across the board. The true “bloodbath” will come January and February as those carriers and operators on borrowed time face the music. Likely to see the Fed begin to at least slow the rate hikes by April which will likely cause things to lean a bit more towards optimistic. We will have to wait and see how labor markets go though. A lot of job losses could create enough demand destruction to keep the whole year slow/down against any historical basis.

It won’t be a year for growth, that’s for sure.

 

When (licenses / registration / insurance) come due is when you will start seeing bank foreclosures.

 

I'm just a local guy. The outbound load I do pretty regularly will stay the same at least until June. The way I take it is some of these brokers have long-ish term stuff. Said he's good til June at the same rate.

 

JimmyTwoTimes, I said, you have access to the smartest bunch of over the road warriors to have ever graced this planet. Why not start a thread on the TRF and see what the collective minds on that platform predict for next year?"

JimmyTwoTimes, I said, you have access to the smartest bunch of over the road warriors to have ever graced this planet. Why not start a thread on the TRF and see what the collective minds on that platform predict for next year?"

fixed it for ya

 

The guy just down the road from us has about 10 trucks or so and like 2 owner ops. I've been seeing about 3-5 trucks parked daily. I don't know if he has much contract freight at all, I don't think so because I see them at all the same places we go. I know the last 2 years with high rates he's spent a bunch of money adding to the house/property. I think he's just been running the boards while it was sky high. It'll be interesting to see what happens

He hasn't been established for very long, came around the last 5-6 years or so from oilfield land money. Maybe less, I haven't paid attention since we started running spot market in 2019