How's Everyone Doing in LTL Right Now?

I don’t know if I am understanding your question, but I am aware of nothing Amazon sells that you can’t buy elsewhere.

 

You’re mixing several different issues together, so I’ll separate them.

First, the “billionaire pedophile” point is rhetorical, not practical. If you participate in the modern economy at all, your money has passed through companies or individuals you wouldn’t personally endorse. That’s unavoidable. Family size or caregiving responsibilities don’t change that reality.

Second, on food processing: I agree with you at a high level. Processing itself is not the problem. Washing, freezing, pasteurization, grinding, and protein isolation (like whey and casein) are not what anyone serious is criticizing. The concern people raise is ultra-processing; the routine addition of emulsifiers, preservatives, refined starches, dyes, and flavor enhancers. Those categories are well documented to be associated with higher rates of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. Hardly 'hippy fear-mongering'.

Third, on genetic modification: I never claimed GM foods are inherently unsafe. The legitimate criticism is about how certain GM traits are used, particularly herbicide-tolerant crops that incentivize heavier herbicide use. That’s a farming-practice issue, not a DNA issue, and I’m fine acknowledging that distinction.

Fourth, the cancer comment: I never said junk food gave my child cancer. That was an assumption you introduced. My son’s cancer is due to a known inherited genetic defect that increases tumor risk. Given that elevated baseline risk, we’ve chosen to reduce other modifiable risk factors where we reasonably can.

On time and money: yes, we use Whole Foods delivery via Amazon, and yes, there’s a delivery fee. The point was never that delivery literally puts cash back in my pocket. It’s that time has value, even when it isn’t billable. Avoiding weekly in-store shopping reclaims roughly 100 hours a year that I’d rather spend with my family or on things I actually care about. I personally value that reclaimed time at roughly my effective hourly rate. You don’t have to value your time the same way, but that doesn’t make the calculation “mental gymnastics.”

We also shop at Costco for bulk non-food items and buy meat locally from a farm in bulk once a year. There’s no single store that covers everything efficiently; different tools for different needs.

Also, I haven't driven a truck in years

 

I think it’s implied that the “risk” is in losing some market share to a new Amazon LTL division. No one expects them to come in, build up a network from scratch and immediately force other LTLs out of business.

A monopoly in what industry? They certainly aren’t a monopoly in trucking.

 

Standard Oil wasn't a monopoly in 1880s, but it's size allowed it to engage in anti-competitive activities which had far reaching impacts. Within 20 years Standard Oil controlled 90% of the petroleum market was effectively setting freight rates. Standard Oil's use of both horizontal and vertical integration could have allowed it to control the entire US economy by the 1920's. In the mid 1800's some diplomat quipped "when France sneezes, Europe catches a cold", because any issues in France would cause similar disruptions across the continent. Ownership and control over the market are different things. France didn't own Europe, but anything that happened in Paris, happened every where else.

I don't think any company can effectively enter the LTL marketplace right now - YRC's exit didn't exactly result in any of the other LTL's expanding their capacity. Take the most capable people in the LTL world and give them a billion dollars to build a new LTL company and in 3 years they will have lost $1.5 billion.

Amazon isn't building from scratch, but there's no way they can operate an LTL operation at a profit when their TL and delivery operations operate at a loss. Amazon looks at trucking as a 'loss leader', making it up through volume, advertising, and AWS. I don't think anyone on TTR would argue that the way Amazon runs their TL operations is good for the industry or the economy as a whole.

 

Fun fact - most mid sized and small retailers run their online stores through Amazon, so even if you 'buy direct', Amazon is getting a cut.

 

I think that was UPS Freight, and a big reason why LTL was so unprofitable for them.

 

I don't know about that, but apparently the Fedex Founder took the last of the cash he had to Vegas and won enough to keep the lights on for a few more weeks.

The line between smart business practices and market manipulation can be rather hard to delineate. Is hauling the freight for free in order to get the more lucrative package business that much more different than grocery stores selling milk and eggs at a loss to get shoppers in the door? What about if the grocery store opens a bank and gives shoppers a discount for using 'their' debit/credit card? Kohl's is a credit card company that sells clothes as a side line and GM is a bank that makes cars. That's fine and dandy, provided there's still competition in the market and until their banking business makes enough that they can sell their products below their costs and still make a profit. Now say it's enough of a profit that Kohl's can buy out Kroger and expands their card network, offering new card holders 20% of groceries for the first year. A couple years later they buy Kwik Trip and do the same thing. Kohl's is now big enough that they make their card national, undercutting Visa and Mastercard. A few years after that they start limiting Visa and Mastercard's use at their stores. Now Kohl's controls the US economy. This is why talking about business ethics is so hard.


That's what Amazon is doing. It's nothing new, at one point General Mills had an aeronautical division. For me, it boils down to "Is it good for the consumer AND good for the overall economy?" Whether we're talking vertical or horizontal integration, any one entity having outsized influence is bad for both. When that influence is funded solely by an unrelated venture, it spells impending doom for anyone without three comas in their net worth.

 

https://imgur.com/a/e4BS0W1
https://imgur.com/a/hNaHS0j

Not too shabby. $ 93,211.79 was made at force; $91,490.79 base pay + $1,721 in tips. The last $1,721 was tax-free of course.

The Evo is an easy occasional weekend gig hauling mail.

 

I'm going back on the road with Estes next week. I can't do nights anymore so I'm running extra board. I missed being over the road anyways. No complaints guys but I do have good news.

I'm closing on my second house March 17! Decided to buy another house instead of the Z06.