Market Rate Index/Analysis

The only"flaw"to ITS data(or transcore,ect) is they go by how many trucks posted vs how many loads posted in any given area. We post just a tiny fraction of all the freight we broker and almost never post a truck. Many of the carriers we use post all their trucks even if they are already doing a load or two for us. At best it gives a very general view. If you match it to the rate index we could take another 10-15% and still be at a higher rate than the index shows.

 

I don't get too excited about these load board charts. They are good short term trend indicators but I would stop short of broader generalizations. The data is a lot dirtier than they admit.

To add to what wichris says, we all know and have been stung by the large brokers inflating the available freight listings several different ways:

- Same load listed by multiple brokers
- Recurring postings of "daily" loads that are not actually there more often than not
- Same load listed with different start/end cities

Don't discount the value of contract freight rates. It's not dollar accuracy that matters. For most of us, the market we move in is an extension of that one. If you consider it a trend indicator, a 10¢ increase in the posted index doesn't mean add 10¢ to the rate you quote, you extend that in consideration of other trends like density and the data artifacts mentioned above that can only be seen by your Mark V eyeballs to come up with a more real value to plug into your quote.

With respect to Transcore vs. ITS, it depends a lot on the market. Having reefer equipment, I always do "RV" searches. On a good day ITS has less than half the postings in my market, more often closer to 20% compared to TC. Complicating that, ITS will not filter van-only from "RV" search results. Don't get me wrong, I don't hate ITS. For me it's just more work and less efficient, and at the end I have far fewer postings to consider. When I go fishing on the load boards, 80% of the time I get a match on TC. ITS and GetLoaded are ok backups, and I'm seriously considering dropping GL because it takes awkward to a new level and frankly hasn't done anything for me in the past month.

Final thought: load boards are market makers and cater to the brokers. Thumb through the ITS magazine and see who has the focus in their articles and adverts. Sure they make money off both sides of the transaction, but the broker listings come first to make the market. It isn't rocket surgery to figure out why brokers consistently get a pass on less than truthful postings and slimy follow through. Do you think that may also play into how load boards report trends?

 

Sounds like data is being manipulated to get the
answer they want. They are playing both sides as usual .

 

What flavor is your Kool-aid BBB? I don't like it too sugary!

At Malone we seem stuck in contract rates and can't capitalize on the spot market as much as I would like. I am loyal though and won't forget I got through 2008 with them.

 

If there is one thing I've learned on this board it is that you will never please everyone here. Like you said, data is about consistency over time that lets you compare time periods and project trends. Everything has flaws when trying to generalize an industry and that's where your knowledge of your operation comes into play.

Thanks Bill, I appreciate the posts. Having a deeper understanding of the industry like this separates those companies that will be around for the long run and those that come and go with industry cycles.

 

Whether it is an index or percentage you can assign rules or clean the data. Or manipulate if you so choose. Don't get sidetracked by the term used. I've been with ITS since it's start,before that DAT(when they were still only in the truckstops)before internet. The best indicator i know of is when your contracted freight customers(those that have 1,3,5 year contracts) are offering to re-write at higher rates. That usually happens when their customers are putting in 6-9 month in advance orders. When sales increase due too competitors going out isn't an indicator of growth. New ones will come in. Even with under-capacity of trucks it doesn't take very long to catch up. Especially in the spot market.