How do my preliminary business plan numbers look?

I'm in the preliminary stages of developing a business plan for running a dry van OTR -- how accurate do my numbers seem? What am I missing? I'm attempting to compare costs of buying preEGR vs CARB compliant vs new tractor (as well as basing operations in Tennessee vs California):


[TABLE]
[TR]
[TD]2002[/TD]
[TD="width: 155"]$15,000.00[/TD]
[TD="width: 99"]cash[/TD]
[TD="width: 86"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Year 1[/TD]
[TD]Year 2[/TD]
[TD]Year 3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tractor[/TD]
[TD]$15,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$0.00[/TD]
[TD]$0.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trailer[/TD]
[TD]$15,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$0.00[/TD]
[TD]$0.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maint/Repairs[/TD]
[TD]$25,250.00[/TD]
[TD]$23,625.00[/TD]
[TD]$27,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Permits[/TD]
[TD]$4,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$3,750.00[/TD]
[TD]$3,750.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Insurance[/TD]
[TD]$10,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$10,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$10,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fuel[/TD]
[TD]$68,850.00[/TD]
[TD]$69,525.00[/TD]
[TD]$70,200.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Subscriptions[/TD]
[TD]$2,400.00[/TD]
[TD]$2,400.00[/TD]
[TD]$2,400.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total Expenses:[/TD]
[TD]$140,500.00[/TD]
[TD]$109,300.00[/TD]
[TD]$113,350.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]3 year cost:[/TD]
[TD]$363,150.00[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]$75,000.00[/TD]
[TD]15k cash, 15% financing 2 yrs[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Year 1[/TD]
[TD]Year 2[/TD]
[TD]Year 3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tractor[/TD]
[TD]$49,908.00[/TD]
[TD]$34,908.00[/TD]
[TD]$0.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trailer[/TD]
[TD]$15,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$0.00[/TD]
[TD]$0.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maint/Repairs[/TD]
[TD]$20,250.00[/TD]
[TD]$23,625.00[/TD]
[TD]$27,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Permits[/TD]
[TD]$4,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$3,750.00[/TD]
[TD]$3,750.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Insurance[/TD]
[TD]$11,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$10,500.00[/TD]
[TD]$10,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fuel[/TD]
[TD]$67,500.00[/TD]
[TD]$68,175.00[/TD]
[TD]$68,850.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Subscriptions[/TD]
[TD]$2,400.00[/TD]
[TD]$2,400.00[/TD]
[TD]$2,400.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total Expenses:[/TD]
[TD]$170,058.00[/TD]
[TD]$143,358.00[/TD]
[TD]$112,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]3 year cost:[/TD]
[TD]$425,416.00[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]$152,500.00[/TD]
[TD]15k cash, 8% financing 3yrs[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Year 1[/TD]
[TD]Year 2[/TD]
[TD]Year 3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Tractor[/TD]
[TD]$66,708.00[/TD]
[TD]$51,708.00[/TD]
[TD]$51,708.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trailer[/TD]
[TD]$15,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$0.00[/TD]
[TD]$0.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Maint/Repairs[/TD]
[TD]$10,125.00[/TD]
[TD]$16,875.00[/TD]
[TD]$20,250.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Permits[/TD]
[TD]$4,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$3,750.00[/TD]
[TD]$3,750.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Insurance[/TD]
[TD]$14,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$12,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$10,000.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fuel[/TD]
[TD]$67,500.00[/TD]
[TD]$67,500.00[/TD]
[TD]$68,175.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Subscriptions[/TD]
[TD]$2,400.00[/TD]
[TD]$2,400.00[/TD]
[TD]$2,400.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Total Expenses:[/TD]
[TD]$179,733.00[/TD]
[TD]$154,233.00[/TD]
[TD]$156,283.00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]3 year cost:[/TD]
[TD]$490,249.00[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Miles/year[/TD]
[TD]revenue/mile[/TD]
[TD]Gross revenue[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]135000[/TD]
[TD]$1.60[/TD]
[TD]$216,000.00[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Annual Costs[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]California[/TD]
[TD]Tennessee[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Health Insurance[/TD]
[TD]$3,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$900.00[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Workman's Comp[/TD]
[TD]$10,000.00[/TD]
[TD]$4,000.00[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Income Tax[/TD]
[TD]8.00%[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]Annual Profit (normalized over 3 years)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]California[/TD]
[TD]Tennessee[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2002[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD]$90,050.00[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2010[/TD]
[TD]$58,299.09[/TD]
[TD]$69,294.67[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014[/TD]
[TD]$40,016.97[/TD]
[TD]$47,683.67[/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

Thanks, updated (though I used 12%)

Not sure where you're going with this... Did I miss something?

 

$15,000 for a trailer in all examples.

2002 tractor using price of $15,000 (12.7 Columbia with 1.x million miles) and $5000 in delayed-maintenance & modification costs in addition to 15cpm maintenance/repairs for the 1st year. 17.5cpm 2nd year, 20cpm 3rd year. Fuel costs rising from 51cpm 1st year to 52cpm 3rd year.

2010 tractor using a price of $75,000 (DD13/15 Cascadia with 300K miles), 15K down payment, 60K loan financed for 2 years at 15% interest. Maintenance/repairs increasing from 15cpm to 20cpm over 3 years. Fuel costs rising from 50cpm to 51cpm over 3 years

2014 tractor using a price of 135,000 plus 12% FET (~152K), 15K down payment, 137K loan financed at 8% over 3 years. Maintenance/repairs increasing from 7.5cpm to 15cpm over 3 years. Fuel costs rising from 50cpm to 50.5cpm.


Insurance based on quotes posted on the forums for 10K/year for a used truck/trailer. I assume a new truck would cost more, guesstimated 14K.

Permits pretty much a guess. Assuming trailer registration cost is a one-time thing, so first year expense higher by that ($250?). I'm guessing at 2K to register tractor, and another 1500 in permits to go through various states.


Subscriptions include load boards (I believe I heard KR say $150/month for an upgraded version giving you more data), membership dues to professional organizations, etc.


Health insurance is based on Anthem Blue Cross/Shield Obamacare Silver -- something that costs ~$250/month in California, and $75/month in Tennessee.
Workman's comp was based on an online insurance quote for a truck driver earning 60K. It was over 10,000 in California, the same coverage was under $4,000 in Tennessee. California also has an ~8% tax rate on corporate income (I'm leaning towards LLC), but that turns out to not matter very much when earning so little & depreciating such large assets in a small amount of time.


Revenue/mile is based on corporate filings from publicly traded mega's (ranges from 1.40-1.80/mile)

Miles/year is 2700/week for 50 weeks and is well under my capacity to drive, but I'm presuming I'll have to spend more time sitting & working brokers/load boards.

 

Which ones? Please enlighten me as there is only so much I can see without jumping in and actually doing it. I am trying to be conservative/pessimistic, particularly with maintenance/repair costs, so I'm not unpleasantly surprised down the road.

Not required, but failing to have it would result in a $400-$900 tax for a single person earning 40,000-90,000/year ( http://obamacarefacts.com/obamacare-individual-mandate.php ). Workman's comp is optional as the single employee and frankly I wouldn't pay 10K/year for personal coverage, but that coverage is something I currently have (along with medical benefits) as a company driver. So I am partly comparing being a company driver to going o/o and the "freedom" isn't worth going from over 60K/year w/ benefits, to 40K/year w/benefits (or 53k/year w/o benefits). Granted years 4, 5, 6 will be much better since the truck will have been paid off (and have some residual value).