Bust is sooner than you think....
Discussion in 'Oilfield Trucking Forum' started by Montanaland, Dec 6, 2013.
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For a 6 month increase at 100$ it shows that the prices are dropping my original apt went from 1000 to 1250 in Sept and month to month was 1800
Moved out of there and took a townhouse when my wife arrived 1460 1br last Jan I subleased it and this year will raise to1650. I decided to buy as I threw away about 30k on rent since I arrived -
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I have nothing against mancamps. The Target Logistics places are some of the nicest I have seen anywhere. But it's not family housing. This reckoning is one reason why there is such a high turnover rate among drivers and rig hands up here. Guys are up here away from home, for the most part. Some bring their families up to live in RV parks, but what a way to spend the Winter...
I do not know if the trend is the same in Texas, though.TLeaHeart Thanks this. -
The brutal reality is there is a paradigm shift underway.
Wealth and power are moving from the West to the East.
This collapse is a process. There will be individual events along the way, that qualify as a collapse, but those individual events are still a part of the process the of the larger environment As I understand it, the great Roman empire collapsed in a process that took some 800 to 1,000 years.
It is all about one thing: The cost of Labor. A few years ago, everyone was worried that Mexico would take our jobs. Look at Walmart... Those jobs went to China, to lower the Mexican and Yankee labor cost.
Technology transfers and the build out, expansion and improvement of infrastructure went along with the jobs, as did capital. The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq were all about the Silk Road trade routes.
Presently, the focus is Africa, to lower Chinese, Mexican and Yankee labor cost. Abe Lincoln did the same thing. He didn't care about the slaves. He stole them and set them free, to lower Yankee labor cost. This is an old story being repeated, today.
The only question is one of timing. Only those that control the agenda, know the timing.
This chart shows that GDP has been negative since Y2K, except for a brief period in 2004.
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-gdp.gif?hl=ad&t=#!
The government quit publishing M3 a few years ago - in 2005, I think. It is a broad measure of the money supply.
Here is a chart of the velocity of M2, a more narrow measure of the money supply. This chart should make you pee in your pants.
http://johngaltfla.com/wordpress/wp...VELOCITY_ALL_SAjgfla.jpg?_escaped_fragment_=#!
Did you ever notice how they play with words?
GDP = Money Supply * Velocity
Velocity = GDP / Money Supply, where P is the Nominal Gross Domestic Product (not inflation adjusted here), M is the money supply and V is the velocity of money. You can solve for V by dividing P by M.
GDP includes government spending. GNP does not.
Here is a chart that shows a more accurate picture of the unemployment rate. It is calculated by a more traditional and time-honored method.
http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-emp.gif?hl=ad&t=1351861609#!
I think it was also in 2005, when the formula for unemployment was changed. Alan Greenspan called it "Hedonic" Adjustment". In other words, they decide on the number they want to present to the ever-gullible public, and plug the variables to achieve that number, and that is what is published as the official pronouncement.
By the way, the root word of Hedonic is hedonism: noun
1. the doctrine that pleasure or happiness is the highest good.
2. devotion to pleasure as a way of life:
The later Roman emperors were notorious for their hedonism.
Synonyms: sensualism, libertinism, debauchery, dissipation, carousal.
Antonyms: puritanism, asceticism, abstemiousness, self-denial.
This is a piece by the ever popular Mogambo Guru, from a couple of years ago. Hedonic adjustments are applied to the consumer price index, employment statistics and other data provided by the government, to deflate or inflate the current numbers.
It all depends on what picture they want you to see.
Never mind the root word. That is for them, not you.
Hedonic Adjustments and the Mulligans of Monetary Policy
http://dailyreckoning.com/hedonic-adjustments-and-the-mulligans-of-monetary-policy/
Here is a 10-year chart on the Labor Force Participation Rate. Notice that is has been trending down for the entire length of the chart...
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
There is a great deal more that could contribute to the question asked. I lack the time. Besides, you are responsible for your own level of knowledge and education. All I'm doing is pointing the
way. Far too many people are content in their ignorance and ignorance truly is bliss.Last edited: Dec 15, 2013
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