Crude oil is $86 today.... beginning of the end?

You do NOT increase the economic growth of the country by reducing the economic growth of a sector. People spend their money, and it does not matter in economic terms if that dollar is spent on gasoline, or food, or a new pair of shoes, that dollar benefits the entire economy. The myth of taking from one sector increases disposable income, and there for increasing the economy is just that, a myth. The ONLY way to increase true disposable income is to increase the entire pie.

Nothing at all wrong in making a profit, or working a career that allows one to "live high on the hog"... it is a choice. Nobody owes anyone else their money, or the fruits of their labor. Those who only think of themselves, and the short term, are destined to live in poverty, envy and hate of those who look to the long term growth of wealth. Celebrating lower energy prices will cause short term gains, with long term looses... as the economy shrinks into a continuing recessions. The benefits of the short term have already been realized, and now the recession will continue, and get worse until oil prices recover. Then it will take another 12 to 18 months for the oil industry to revamp, and start growing again. In the mean time, NO other sector is poised to grow, is showing any growth or growing.

 

You didn't address anyone in particular and I'm only responding based on what I've been talking about. What I want to know is, who is kemosabi and why is he thanking you for this mess?

"Celebrating" isn't going to affect anything. You say you don't support tariffs, fine. You want us to be able to export oil, fine.

Uh, no. We're still buying cheap gas and you keep bringing up this 7 fold multiplier (or velocity, or whatever it's called) and that works through the economy over time.

Because... you say so? You don't support tariffs and you want export restrictions lifted...fine...

You don't support tariffs, and you want export restrictions lifted...and...the Federal Reserved was established in a midnight deal in 1913 and we've been headed for destruction since then...and oil has been the only major sector of the economy that has been growing...fine.

 

Bought gas tonight, cost me $1.89.9 per gallon, now gas prices are exactly where they should have been for the past 10 to 15 years.

 

Back around 2001-2002, I had 3 trucks on the road and the fuel budget was based on $1.50/gal diesel... most of the time, I was paying in the $1.25 - $1.40 range.

 

In 2000 i was buying diesel for 82 cents on the water for my commercial biz. Pissed me off I had to pay a 1.29 a gallon for gas for the dinghy.

I went boating the other day for the 1st time in a a while and all i can say is it was the most boats I had seen out in 7 years.

 

Getting back to the original posting.. I just took a look at the jobs listed on nd.craigslist.org. WOW!!! PAY HAS JUMPED TO THE UPPER 20'S PER HOUR!!

I left the oilfield to be an owner operator , thanks to the money I made in the oilfield. When I left 20 an hour was starting to be the norm. I'm happy to see the wages are back up.

Production water will be flowing and that will not stop unless they start shutting in wells. I saw many jobs listed for experienced, non experienced.

So my answer to the original poster, only direct rig service will slow, but production water and crude hauling jobs will last the year but may start slowing as wells slow down.

 

What you are forgetting is that billions of dollars are being removed from the economy, due to lower fuel prices... that shrinks the economy, as a whole. So there are more people enjoying pleasure activities, due to lower fuel prices, there are the same number of people who have had their wages cut due to lower fuel prices. A dollar is a dollar, does not matter if it is spent on fuel, or pleasure.

All those people the news media and you claim have an extra $1000, don't have an extra 1000, they still make the same amount of money, and still spend the same dollars, just on different items, net effect to the economy zero. Sure it moves dollars from the hated oil industry, to other lower paying service industires, but that does not grow the economy, as a whole.. it grows the consumption side of the economy until the false myth bubble bursts.

 

I think you are forgetting that lower energy prices do slow the real inflation rate. The government took out food and energy from the inflation calculations, so if you put back food and energy the rate is WAY higher. But, the lower prices do help.
Gordon Gekko: It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another.

 

The economy is not a zero sum game.

When you engage in trade it is by definition a positive sum game.

 

As a modified version of the old saying goes, "I am not an economist, or the son of an economist," and while it makes sense that "money itself isn't lost or made; it's simply transferred from one perception to another," is it not also the case that brand new wealth (or money) is, in fact, created when something that did not exist before is brought to the market? Such as, oil when it is brought out of the ground (prior to that, while there, it was not in the economic system), such as, crops (while in the economic system as seed, once planted and harvested and sold, is that not creation of "new" wealth?). Could not the same apply to all basic commodities whether iron, gold, silver, wood, even animals, etc.? Are not basic commodities the only source of true, new wealth? Money, per se, or currency, is just a medium of exchange and is not actually the basis of wealth, just a reflection of wealth. So, not sure of my point relative to this thread other than that oil is a basic commodity that when brought out of the ground does, in fact, create new wealth; whereas, spending money for Facebook or a Cable TV Subscription or taxes or attorney fees or??? only transfers existing wealth, but does not create new wealth. Ok, I'll quit now, before I dig this hole any deeper, lol.