2017 Rates Prediction

Housing. = Taxes Revenue. Economic activity.

When we owned our home outright paid for 6 years into a 15 year mortgage we thought, oh good. Easy street. Nope. Central air/heating stack, 45 years old. Burned up. Inadequate. Replaced. $9000. Entire house electrical wiring, new copper service drop buses Main A and B from Pole through entire home new outlets, switches, updated lighting etc etc etc to also service new central Heat and air. 8000 dollars. A bathroom in which insurance refused to pay because the tree limb that poked a hole in the roof above through the 4x8 foot plywood panel under the shingles by the Ice Dam was 12000 dollars. Septic tank failed. Destroyed and buried. Commerical grade sewer line pipe placed into the ground for 610 feet and barely made the municipal connection under the state roadway at 9 feet 7 inches down with 3 inches to spare 10000 dollars. Paid in 3 months otherwise interest 11% for 9 years to the city. Foundation support work, vents brought up to code, 20 plus dead and dying hardwood trees removed. Approximately 7000 dollars in total. 5000 more in free labor by me and Mr Stihl. (That saw was about 700 dollars with a 3 foot bar and a engine bigger than my head. but oy what a SAW!!! none of that lowes or hd crap.) Oak 6 feet thick? No problem. Gerrrrrr cut. A thousand dollars per year in Rock into the sinking gravel road. Not driveway, road. Replaced natural gas line from distribution valve down the street. Free. But fast food for 7 days due to no gas. A destroyed water line twice. total of about 14000 dollars worth of work done as a 500 dollar at cost ministry. The first one?A 7 foot thick Walnut tree finally broke the first line, then drank 35000 gallons of water in 45 days flat creating a billing nightmare for us to the City. It was nice, greeen, strong and busy that summer july when all other trees had turned brown and burned in the 110 degree heat. The total of that water bill? Don't ask. It all went back down to the aquafier below our land, something like 440 feet down. New back additions and a replacement rebuild of front section of home, another 15000 dollars. New roof another 6000. This time with 130 mph shingles, ice dams updated and 30 pound felt among other things. The original roof dated to 1960 something and was really pathetic.

And approximately another 50,000 dollars cash expenses replacing applicances, updating equiptment, Cars and trucks and on and on and on. All of that in 14 years flat all done.

Aint American Home ownership grand? Hell Yes.

Which is why we both don't own a home anymore. Best to rent and let someone else tear their hair out and go bald and grey stressing about the bug man bill which was the straw that broke out camel'sback twice a year. Spring 1600 dollars fall another 2000 thank you. SHEESH.

 

Thank you for doing your part to keep the economy moving forward...

 

I predict (with 99.9% certainty) that many drivers here will continue to ##### about cheap freight.

 

I tell you hwhat. With many more carriers joining the rest of the circus, we probably won't see a change for a while.

 

February 09, 2017. How are those 2017 prediction rates working out so far?

Dry van rates on the west coast are in the toilet. Availability is enemic.

I'm glad I paid forward on my bills last year and saved some cash and have been able to chill out at home since the beginning of the year.

 

Its February, rates are supposed to be in the toilet compared to peak season:



The only time freight is "good" in February is when seasonality is overwhelmed by rapid overall economic growth like 2010-2014:

 

Things have been average with flatbed. Rates are nothing to write home about. But load availability has been pretty good and steady. At least in the lanes I have been running.

Things should start to pick up within the next 30 - 45 days or so. I predict a record year for me. At least its starting out that way for me right now. Knock on wood.

Hurst

 

Ditto on the cattle pot

 

The rates are going up. Wages have been going up for six months, and judging by the number of signs around Louisville right now offering 18+ an hour from TEMP agencies I'd say trucking finally has some competition from local jobs. Ultimately trucking competes with construction, higher end warehouse (think working at a Toyota/UPS DC for 20+ an hour), and factory work for skilled blue collar workers. If their wages are going up in other places trucking companies have to pay more to compete.

Next truck sales and trailer sales have bottomed out according to IT magazine (I've been REALLY bored this last month). This is a sign that trucking companies aren't adding any capacity and may not even be maintaining existing capacity. This takes the downward pressure off of rates that caused the freight recession from 2014-present.

I think the short term rate outlook is that we're already up 10-15% from the same time last year. Yes I know it sucks right now, but it's February, and last February was SUPER bad. #### all of 2016 was just terrible. But it being bad in February is like saying 'gee it sure is cold in the winter'. You gotta compare apples to apples.

Looking a little further down the road I think ELD's are going to push up rates 10-15% overnight when they become mandatory. Teams will get more like 25-30% more probably. Lots of freight that used to go with a strong solo is going to HAVE to have a team in the future.