Forecasting spot rates 2019

"Morgan Stanley equities analyst Ravi Shanker released a note earlier today (June 10) that suggested its proprietary industry metric, the Truckload Freight Index (TLFI) may be near its bottom as orders for new Class 8 trucks crash and a steady clip of carrier bankruptcies bleeds capacity from the market."

 

I noticed yesterday that a small Volvo dealership on my lane had 12 new trucks on their lot. 2 to 3 mos ago, they essentially had none.

 

I’ve noticed the same at quite s few Dealerships.

 

Morgan Stanley's report is who I've always based my planning around. Its served ne well so far.

 

Wonder how many millions of dollars they spend to come to that conclusion? I’d probably tell them for half that.

 

I’m having a hell of a time selling my used truck. No calls whatsoever and I even have it in truck paper. Nobody is buying anything.

My trailer sales lady said she’s very slow as well.

 

Not true. I'm going to get 2 soon. And the offer I gave my salesman awhile ago " Your out of your mind." Is now getting " So, you still interested in those trucks?" Yes I am, and I'm gonna squeeze him for a little more too lol.

 

You guys do realize were moving REAL fast toward 2020 right? It's the busy season now. If you don't have your forecasting hocus in focus, I'm thinking you may have missed the boat.

 

My statement was a little too broad. I meant “Hardly anyone is buying in comparison to how they were”.

I have another one being built later this month. So I’ll have a second for sale. I may just need to wholesale them out but was hoping I could do better then trade in value on them.

You buying new?