Bust is sooner than you think....

Brother, you seem bent on an argument no matter what the topic is. There are plenty of other threads on here if you don't like what we're discussing.

 

One could probably drive themselves crazy trying to figure it out. An international catastrophe, or an increase in oil from the mid-east, a moratorium on fracking ..... it could be anything. I follow what I can because I'd rather not be blind-sided, but I realize it's likely I'll never see it coming. I came out here knowing it wouldn't last forever and I'll move on when I have to.

 

Exactly. And you obviously intend to move on with more money than you began with.

 

Fine with me. Then I can go home!

 

So far all that is discussed is that it CAN happen...DUH, we know that...so let's hear the indicators...as was promised!

 

What I'm going to do is Save money and more money. Then figure out which companies are publicy traded; then short the hell out of the market. Us in the inside will see this coming for sure. *PS I'm not a financial adviser I'm just saying what I'm going to do. I remember when in 2008 everyone was screaming the sky was falling. Never traded a stock in my life but I could hear dinner a calling when I heard that going on. I picked up Symbol CAR for $0.48 a share only bought 1000, wish I had bought more but hey sold at $5.10. Ill take that any day of the week.

 

But...but...It's what I DO!

I'm even better in person because I'm quick see, I don't need to sit back and think about it see...I'm quick I tells ya!

 

Indicator, supply is growing, demand is dropping... the natural gas price is so low it is cheaper to pay the fine to the government to burn it off, than to sell it.

With growing crude flows from North Dakota, Texas and other parts of the country, refineries can force U.S. oil producers to offer large discounts. "It's definitely a buyer's market," says Judith Dwarkin, chief energy economist at ITG Investment Research. Price for Sweet crude in the US is $9.46 per barrel less than the world market.

Crude oil prices have fallen to the low $90 per barrel range... makes many wells marginally profitable, so they won't be drilled.

States are increasing regulations on fracing, therefore increasing costs.

And it is not that the bust CAN happen, it is it WILL happen. I have watched towns actually disappear after the boom.

 

Hey, when the bust hits I'll sell you all King Ranch pickups at a good price...slightly used!

 

Most blowhards are. Still wrong too.

You are more then likely correct. I have watched it as well. Midland/Odessa has been up and down many times. Geologists living in trailers then new subdivisions and then out of a job and gone elsewhere. Same with all others involved. Right now lots of small towns are making comeback from 30+yrs of decline after last bust. It's not just oil industry but it hits harder because of all those who buy everything they want on credit or with cash and don't save and are wiped out within a few months. The good times are here forever mentality will bite you in arse. Like every other field if you prepare for the worst then you won't have too many problems. But every generation there are those who know it all and are going to show everyone they can beat the system. We were all that age and mentality once. Like the CR England, FFE, CRST wannabes on here. Common sense is the same no matter if it's the oil patch or whatever. Oil field can be great. Put some money back and be ready though. Being out of work for a few months to a couple of yrs is the norm.