Freight Rates and Loads

DUNE-T · Sep 26, 2018

Hurst said: ↑

I cant confirm or know where to begin to find the data.

When I posted my opinions about the subject in my other posts 2 months ago,.. I predicted an over saturated market with new O/O's trying to cash in on our success of 2018. I based my opinion on the amount of posts on here and other forums of people asking where to find loads, what loadboards to use, where to buy a good truck, which truck is better,.. those kinds of rookie posts. Then just over hearing conversations from people at truck stops who were bragging about how much money they could make if they bought a truck. Company drivers blindly talking each other into wanting to lease a truck. People who work at shippers telling me how rich I must be and how they are going to get their CDL and buy a truck. No clue as to what I went through to get to this point.

Thats when I knew the boom would be short lived and 2019 would go back to a brokers market. Combine that with rising fuel costs and I predict only the well prepared will survive 2019. With the 2020 election coming up,.. I suspect purse strings are going to tighten up before the election. If Dems get in office,.. I expect an epic drop in volume and rates. Most rookies will,.. or should be close to bankruptcy by 2020.

No hard data,.. just my personal opinion based on what I am seeing. Now is not the time to be a novice O/O.

I hope I am wrong,.. you guys can chastise me if I am wrong. We will see how it goes. I'm still going to put my pants on one leg at a time and keep hustling the best I know how.

Hurst
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I think the same. Things will be ok in 2019, but 2020 will be brutal

JonJon78 · Sep 26, 2018

Scooter Jones said: ↑

I'm convinced the majority of post like this are guys who are just trolling. I've seen it over and over and over since I've been a part of this forum the last several years.
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I hope so. It would be like opening a restaurant and then learning how to cook afterwards? Who does that...

DUNE-T · Sep 26, 2018

It's pretty easy to get a truck nowadays...

JonJon78 · Sep 26, 2018

DUNE-T said: ↑

It's pretty easy to get a truck nowadays... View attachment 247160
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Sure at what 18%?

Scooter Jones · Sep 26, 2018

JonJon78 said: ↑

Sure at what 18%?
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18%? LOL. More like 29%... Or more

TallJoe · Sep 26, 2018

Such a nice and shiny KW. Who the heck would not want it, make big$$ and get to see all of the country? 5K and the dream comes true..Never mind that..

I think in a year or two we'll see these going for 45-50k....seriously.

Rideandrepair · Sep 26, 2018

Midwest Trucker said: ↑

New entries are flooding the market since about a year ago. Like someone else said, just look at the abundance of new owner questions on this forum during that time. Several per week. 3 per week on this forum prob equals 3000 in the entire country. Every time I go to the DOR there is a good 5 people ahead of me applying for a new authority.

Back in the winter and spring we as a fleet were around 2.90 to 3.20 for all miles empty and loaded. Right now we are around 2.60 to 2.70. It’s still a lot better then it was in 2015 and 2016 but our expenses have have also gone way up.

2.50/mi is the new 2.20/mi I’d say. I’ve wrote extensively on this forum about saturation and how it doesn’t necessarily mean the economy is slowing if you see less rates. It’s all about saturation and also the big boys adding trucks at a record pace.

Just like has been happening for years... trucks will flood in, they will go out of business and megas will have them sit, then rates will go back up. It’s all about getting it while you can then surviving until then next cycle.

Things aren’t easy right now but if you think it’s bad, wait until a year from now and it’ll be way way worse. We still have a very strong fall and winter ahead, then next spring will be painful followed by a decent summer and then a doom and gloom late summer slow down.

That’s how I see it anyway. If your just getting by now then you have very rough waters in your future.
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I agree

Opendeckin said: ↑

I bought a flatbed and starting pulling it just recently. Been an owner op with authority for 3 years prior to this move. Was always pulling someone else's trailer and being dispatched by them until now though.

Start Date 7/31/2018
End Date 9/20/2018
Rate Per all miles $2.30
Revenue Per day $681.06
Revenue Per week $4,767.40
AVG miles per week 2076.31
Miles 15424
Profit 16906.2
Revenue 35415
Profit Per week 2275.83

Comments 2 weeks taken off of work and all but 1 weekend at home. All but 1 weekend was a 3 day weekend.

This is what my progress has been like. my goal was to be at 2.5 a mile, but it hasn't quite been happening. My cost of operation is only 1.2 a mile so I can make very good money at 2.3 all miles, but I really think the market can support 2.5 a mile all miles If I just learn to work it a little better.

My primary issue with dispatching myself is some weeks I just don't feel like going out and dealing with everyone's #### and I've got enough capital that I can sit for a pretty long time. I've gotta find some way to motivate myself so I quit taking full weeks off every couple weeks lol.
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It’s nice to at least have the choice.

Rideandrepair · Sep 26, 2018

I’ve been running on my own for 14 yrs now. I was leased to a large carrier doing dedicated Auto for 8 yrs prior. My motivation is I don’t trust my Livelyhood in others hands.Im sure there are others Leased on somewhere that can do better than me. Especially when you take into account the extra Ins etc. Even with all the extra stuff involved it’s Less stressful to me as I don’t have to depend on others for my livelyhood. Like I say I can screw things up just as good as anyone else.

Tug Toy · Sep 26, 2018

TallJoe said: ↑

Such a nice and shiny KW. Who the heck would not want it, make big$$ and get to see all of the country? 5K and the dream comes true..Never mind that..

I think in a year or two we'll see these going for 45-50k....seriously.
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We just traded in our 2014’s and only got $35k each. They were autos with full O/O spec at 550 hp. They are all just shy of 500k miles.

I would NOT wish one of them trucks on someone that slept with my wife!

Scooter Jones · Sep 26, 2018

Tug Toy said: ↑

We just traded in our 2014’s and only got $35k each. They were autos with full O/O spec at 550 hp. They are all just shy of 500k miles.

I would NOT wish one of them trucks on someone that slept with my wife!
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LOL! That's brutal!

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