Freight Waves says the bloodbath is coming...

Was just about to post this article. It reads like a lot of threads here.

 

Was talking with our office guy about this "article" yesterday, its 50% fabricated bs, 25% likely true but not well thought out reasoning, the remaining 25% is spurious fearmongering

 

definetly is. I see no slow down, especially come April to June. People are buying things still, machine orders are back logged, people aren’t going to stop eating. With people traveling comes food consumption, toys, drinks, etc. maybe we will see a little lull, or maybe guys that came in with huge overhead recently may hurt, i really don’t see a huge slow down just yet. I think it will actually boom again.

 

"The COVID surge is largely behind us and people are starting to shift their spending away from physical goods to travel and entertainment, which will take a much larger percentage of disposable spending than we have seen over the past two years."

Ask yourself, does that sentence make any sense? Has it been people stockpiling loads of food that has created all the demand? I doubt it. I think it's obvious people will travel more since Covid is done but, at least in the oil industry, I can't see any slowdown. The only constraints my company has is finding new trucks. Everyone they order gets bought out from under them by someone willing to pay tens of thousands of dollars over list.

I have no doubt that a recession is coming this year but even that doesn't justify the panicked hyperbole of predicting a "trucking bloodbath". One of the difficult things to learn in the driver space is being able to translate, decipher and see through the bull #### spouted by people who, nominally, should be supporting drivers. Who buys advertisements from Freightwaves? Drivers? Nope. The people putting money in Freightwaves' pocket is the large and mid size trucking companies who advertise with them.

To me, it sounds like a guy (Craig Fuller - CEO Freightwaves) has talked to executives at trucking companies and they are doing some wishful thinking that they can somehow talk the driver wages market down. Sorry fellas.

 

Then what is your reasoning for that article ?
Just asking

 

I will try to answer this the best I can. Plain and simple I think people just like being negative. You can look around and see people are still buying things. Coming out of the winter the spot market always seems a little light. Ever since fuel went up people have been negative. I guess if I came in with huge equipment costs thinking I was going to get rich quick I’d be worried too. I think that article is almost like a National enquirer article. There was a article I Saw last week said reefer avg was like $2.40 a mile and open deck was $2.50 for that week. Not really sure where they get those numbers from, because I know guys pulling reefer and they were well above that, and I know I was well above that with open deck. By no means no trying to argue, just trying to put some positivity and question some of the negativity we constantly hear. Over capacity may be true, as there is a lot of new carriers out here for sure. Like I said not trying to piss anyone off, just was putting my 2 cents in. Which ain’t worth much.

 

You not pissing me off at all I hope You don't feel like I was trying to start a argument because Iam not I was just wondering is all
I Hope you are right

 

thanks man me too. I think we have both seen bad times, I really don’t want it to be like that again. I truly don’t. Or maybe worse, I’d make it, it would suck though. I don’t want to see anyone fail, I have to say there are many in the business right now that shouldn’t be. And in a big down turn we all know who will be out hauling the actual scraps.

 

I don't much care to go though this crap again .. That's why I asked you I was looking for a ray of sunlight in this tunnel