Full Tariffs- future rates

Pretty simplistic view. If we bought wigets from china and they no longer will ship/sell to us we have three options. 1. We live with no/shortage of wigets. 2. We build them ourselves. 3. We buy from someone else.

In reverse, we sell wigets to china. They no longer buy them from us, get them from BFE.. That may open up the market to whomever BFE used to sell them to.

More complicated than that but with the same results.

 

I'm going to guess that dry van goods will decrease as big box stores will raise prices on goods.

 

Prices go up, people start doing less spending, economy slows down, we are going into a mild recession.
After a year or two, people get used to new prices, get tired of saving and start spending, things start moving around much more and trucks start making great money again for a year or two, until people see a gold rush and bring more capacity to the market

 

If we have less international trading then less trucks are running from our heartland to the borders and back, thus hurting the transportation industry.

 

Let's say Mr Coffee sold for 10.00 at the 5 and 10 store.

Now that the tariffs are in place that Mr Coffee is going to be at least 12.50 at the store.

I don't expect any rates to change. Hauling that Mr Coffee Pot load in a Container out of the west coast port is still the same weights, same box etc.

Once China's Belt Network gains sufficient capability, she will depend on Africa to make 7.00 Mr Coffees for the domestic market in China. There would be no Tariffs to deal with from that direction of labor.

Also, Chinese banks have put a blanket order against people who constantly try to make withdrawals from checking denoted in American Dollars. And reduced the reporting amount from 5000 dollars down to 3000 plus reporting structured withdrawals against the person. In addition to that the Chinese Banks are now sitting on American Dollars and requiring the checking account holder to withdrawal in Yuan. Which I think is running about 7 to 1 USD today.

 

I’d predict it’s a very short term issue. It’s a tough negotiation tactic (which I agree with completely). A deal will be struck sooner rather than later.

Don’t forget this affects China. Already a lot of the customers I deal with are starting to source product from India, were no such tariff currently exists.

 

The rates will go down because the capacity will go up because there will be less work.

 

That’s part of the reason that things are the way they are currently, IMO. At some point, it will turn around. Whether it be the tariff situation comes to an agreement, we start getting things from another country or making them ourselves.

 

Increased Trade has created an Big increase in warehousing, which also increased Trucking. China needs Us more than We need them. Manufacturing more of our own goods sounds great, but nostalgic at best. A whole new Shipping model has emerged. Starting with containers, wharehousing/ Logistics along with JIT. Trucking has benefitted from all of it. There’s too much for both sides to lose. Not much will change for Us, besides the current slow down, hopefully both sides can claim Victory to their people, and get back to business. Might be a pent up demand waiting, I hope so.We need to cash in on this Great Economy I keep hearing about, along with the Farmers.