How's it looking out in the patch?

Arent you working there currently?

 

No.

Ive been off the OTR since 2001 and out of dealing with CDL crews and trucks as a crewboss as of 2010 medically working on replacing parts. It is not going to be finished for some time yet if ever. Cataract surgery is next later this year when it gets big enough to be taken out.

My interest in the subject is indirectly related to military in general, our Nation's ability to endure is directly impacted by the current fall in pricing for oil. Literally a bust in progress, or a slow train wreck. 15 years ago my county was selected as a main focus of the Fayetteville Shale Play with hundreds of new gas rigs established on a particular geographic ridge SW to NE for a hundred miles through here. We learned all about gas rigs in a hurry and thrived on it. In good times tanker trucks roll 10 minutes apart. In bad? Its painfully obvious when yards are full and no trucks worth counting is rolling.

We happen to sit on a mountain of nat gas which is secondary to oil itself. Also in the family we possess 3 oil wells in Texas that are capped after they salted out decades ago. Occasionally we check Midland Records on them at the Court there which is essentially ground zero for all things oil there. So we don't expect those to ever be reopened. But keep a eye on it.

The Markets are a passing interest, we have bought stocks in power companies and sold them at 5 times original purchase price (Never mind some are at 10x share prices now...) and pay the taxes on the gains occasionally. However again due to the oil and gas surplus combined with falling pricing and the pending economic halt due to the outbreaks rolling the USA there is nothing to buy. So we build cash and fort up.

 

I keep in touch with a connections I made in the Bakken back in 14'. Currently my go to crew is doing road work an has abandoned crude, sand and production work due to instability . Apparently it's more consistent doing infrastructure work. Only issue was leasing poorly maintained belly and side dump trailers.
I have been in W Texas the last 3 yrs and there is a moderate amount of sand work 3-4 loads a day although I don't have a current rate sheet that I can share and I'm sure the rates are down.
My Frac chemical contract with a heavy hitter in the area was canceled on Thanksgiving day and I just decided to take vacation until further notice.
Hope that helps a bit for those curious.

 

Well you must have saved up a good chunk

 

Update: They aren’t plugging the wells because it’s definitive and prohibitively expensive to do so, so pumpers are now slowing production. My days have been cut down from five days/week to three. Still getting by supplementing the unpaid days off with PTO.

Oil Production/Country/Day year end 2018 per the Energy Information Administration (EIA):
U.S.A. - 17.886 Million Barrels/Day
Saudi Arabia - 12.419 MB/D
Russia - 11.401 MB/D
Canada - 5.295 MB/D
China - 4.816 MB/D
Iraq - 4.616 MB/D
Iran - 4.471 MB/D

The funny thing about OPEC is that, with America’s energy independence, they are becoming more and more irrelevant. OPEC can drop the price and cause some of our over leveraged middle market players to go bankrupt but all that does is change who owns the underlying assets. The new owners won’t be as leveraged and will be able to produce at a lower break even cost. All they are doing is hardening the United States oil production capacity.

 

ND here. I left driving to work on a rig here. I know a few places that are staying busy as far as drivers go. We’ve been busy on our rig still doing almost 100 hours a week. I have a friend that used to be on drilling rigs and he knows of a couple that are stacking out. As far as crude and sand hauling idk what’s going on with them idk anyone up here doing that anymore but I’m constantly seeing sand trucks so, who knows.

 

Patch will lean out over the next 6 months. Most oil companies have oil sold by contract between $45 and $50 a barrel , hedged. The problems gonna be in November, last quarter when oil is still low. They either gonna have to hedge at a lower price for 2021, or ride the market and most have a break even around $40. So if things dont get better by Dec, get ready for a bad 2021. Ive been in oilfield for 17yrs and have always beem/had trucks. Right now we run 2 vans and i still work oilfield since its been so hot lately. Times are changing

 

Last week I was looking at Brent below 30 as Russia and Saudi compete to out pump each other. (Russia would be the winner here once they focus their ENORMOUS capacity online... they have LAKES of fuel since WW2 ready to go at any time.)

Trump said fill that Strategic Reserve up to the Top end qoute a couple of Days ago. Creating DOE the buyer at any price they dare ask for per barrel.

Between these two extremes pump prices are teetering ready to follow the spot market down. Not that I really care because I strictly drive when I need to and buy very little gas when I really need to go somewhere. I fill once a year if that.

I don't know which way we are going. All I know is that we have plenty of everything in fuel and want for nothing. And I think that is a good thing yes?

 

MBI in North Dakota is ending their crude and water hauling. We're picking up their work. Normally the place I'm leased on to only wants you if you can work a 14 hour shift. I only have 6 hours left on my 70 and they asked if I can work it

 

I’m a little worried about my job.