How's it looking out in the patch?

I work for a diversified midstream company with 29,000 employees. We’re completely effed.

Our company went on a spending spree before the price of oil crashed and now they’re both illiquid and highly leveraged. Our stock price dropped 60% in a week. It’s only a matter of time until a bankruptcy filing. I’d give us 4-6 weeks tops.

 

PM me if you're looking to bail. I might have something that'll interest you

 

I’m not ready to just yet, but if it goes how I think it will I just might do that lol.

 

Gas pricing down to 1.45 here in Searcy.

We are expecting 10.00 oil or less in 6 weeks.

I am watching FANG (Diamondback) very carefully. Chesapeake who is in debt for their eyeballs and skullpan ful for decades finally went to court for protection, again.

I suspect... and have a FEELING... that when we hit 1.00 fuel and .95 gasoline, truckers are going to run like hell and ALL of you patch monsters will pump, throw pipe and wrap chain until you cannot see anymore every day round the clock prices be ######.

The reason I cannot commit to that view is this. Virus.

What if we shut down EVERYTHING everywhere. Where pray are you going to drive to with what?

There is no point.

Thats when everything will crash. Look out below shes gone loco.

Might as well go home and leave that oil right where it is. We will get to it again someday.

 

even if fuel dropped that cheap and the demand spiked like in the above scenario i don’t think it would keep companies from dropping employees. Not enough profit in it for the big guys. Anything less than what it’s at now for any sustained period of time and it’s going to continue to head south. The demand won’t outpace current supply. Just my thoughts.

 

I checked US Oil Spot. It's 23.30 or so barrel and falling. Brent is around 27 and falling.

Companies are already below what they need financially to stay open. So they are dead companies walking hoping for another day another dollar to get through this. They expect US Oil barrel to be below 10.00 in 5 weeks or less.

There is a hell of alot of oil going into the SPR. But when thats topped up tippy top full sloshing overflowing then what? How long do we need to finish filling that monster?

 

Idk, I don’t have all the answers and I won’t claim to. However, if it stays low for any prolonged period time pumping units can always be taken offline or slowed down. There would have to be a huge huge demand in order to stay profitable, like a quantity over quality situation. Kinda like how Megas stay in business. They’re not in business because they’re hauling high paying freight, they’re still in business because they’ve got 100 trucks hauling average paying freight. I work on the well service side. Production and completions work. It costs around 15K~ a day just for a rig and 24 hour crew. That’s not counting anything else, so, if they want a well brought online or fixed they’re going to know for sure it’s going to be profitable.

 

I guess in my mind I can’t see the demand growing that high with how much we currently produce a barrel a day. And if freight rates stay dropping like they have seem to have done the last year or so it won’t matter what fuel costs because no ones going to haul it. Again, idk. I don’t have the answers and I’ll never claim to. I am however always open to opinion and discussion.

 

It reminds me of when I lived in Miami and hurricane Katrina was going to hit us in 48 hours. You knew a Cat 2 storm was coming but it was a beautiful 75 degrees outside.with hardly a cloud in the sky. Easy to lose your sense of urgency.

 

LDLWells, can you PM me? I don't have enough posts. I'm getting laid off by MBI.