Oldeskool has bailed out

When did you start?

 

With 123 million more people today than 1975, an increase in population by nearly 50%... (216 mill vs 339 mill)
Even if the total number of owner operators stayed the same, you proportionally would see less.

With the increase of on demand amd just in time manufacturing, as well as deregulation, less rail freight (proportionally) it is unlikely that there are fewer o/os today than back then.
Not impossible, economies of scale (larger corporations) does odd stuff to markets

 

Cancelled lease in 2020 and got my numbers. Im a little different than a lot of OO though as i never wanted to have my own authority. Was perfectly happy being leased on to a company until they made a safety change i didnt agree with. Looked at other places to lease to a realized they could do the same thing tomorrow so got numbers instead.

 

So if I understand correctly you are one of the many Covid carriers who got in when rates we high and haven’t weathered many cycles as a motor carrier.

 

True. But ive also seen the rates the company i was leased to have had for awhile and if i was still there, id have bailed 6 months ago

 

Rates are as poor as they are because of the influx of carriers over the previous 3 years. Once they clear out rates will increase. Then there will be another influx and they will crash again. This absolutely is the normal cycle of the freight market.

So it’s you and all those who came with you that has screwed it up for guys like me. But 20 years ago I’m sure the old timers blamed it on me. And if you manage to make it 20 years you will blame the new guys too.

 

My authority didn't add any trucks to capacity, just changed the name on the door. My leaving wont either because the company im going to is adding trucks, although most of their freight is, supposedly, direct customer with only a few brokered loads a week.

Im curious what year you remember as having rates this low at the same time fuel was this high? Closest i remember was 1998 or 99 when equipment was a fraction of the cost and cost of living was too. Was there one after that, i cant remember?

Anyway, i still wouldnt call this normal. Covid didnt just drive up freight rates. The govt response to covid completely disrupted the economy which has cause a more severe swing.

 

Yeah you didn't really screw up anything. Neither did all the extra carriers that came into it. The freight was booming from the summer of 2000 all the way up to about Feb of 2022. The fact that spot rates were great and you could get a solid rate anywhere in the lower 48 for more than 18 months on a once in a generation or lifetime "boom" there was plenty of money for everyone, that was crazy.

In a normal year if you can manage 6 months of good to solid rates from the spot markets that's a good year. Low rates like now, that is normal. Sustained low rates after an 18 month boom, probably to be expected.

And when you consider all the massive inflation we've suffered now, was the covid boom really all that good as we sit here and like to talk about? Or did those gains basically just get wiped out from prices doubling and tripling on everything in the here and now?

 

To say that freight was booming for 22 years is a bit of a stretch. Slow steady increase over all maybe. They pattern I’ve noticed is generally 5 decent year followed by 1 year of decline. 2008-9 was horrible with high fuel and low rates. 20015 was another down turn. 19 was heading down. Then the influx of government cash coupled with shortages then people with free time drove a historic and false rise.

The money grab caused a run on equipment which was plaqued with parts shortages and caused equipment prices to soar. Inflated shipping cost as well as shortages coupled with free government money started price inflation.

Now you have people saddled with operating cost that are only sustainable at rates that were never before heard of. They didn’t know the gravy train would end. And are the loudest ones crying about the ####ty market. They made no effort to establish relationships and connections and instead opted to milk the spot market and to stick it to everyone they could. I guess the old adage “pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered” is true.

And yes if you are a hobby trucker who just wants to play the spot market you are big part of the problem.

 

Ya

I think most knew dumping all that money into the economy would be a disaster eventually.