owner operator

Everyone says not to buy a truck right now because freight rates are in the dump. Well think about it. How many people saying don't buy now 6 months to a year ago when truck prices were sky high. If one has the money to buy it and park it, truck prices will fall and if you can score a good deal, that's a smart move, providing the decision has been made they are moving forward in the industry. Takes a healthy bank account to do it, the serious players will be doing it. No different than how Warren Buffet buys and sells, as long as you are getting a good price on a useful commodity that will still be producing cash flow then why would you want to buy at the top? That's when you sell. You don't have to buy at rock bottom either, or sell at peak of the market. Nobody knows either of those before they happen. What we do know is when there is a panic, EVERYBODY sells everything to get out as fast as possible. Then it takes a while to bottom out and people slowly begin buying in again. It's why we have these downturns that last a year or 2, until supply and demand equalize, and when it all shakes out we begin again and have typically a decent run for longer than the crash took. How does that saying go again? More millionaires are made when there's blood in the streets... something like that.

 

My view has always been the BEST time to buy is when either rates are starting to go up or truck prices are low. Ideally both. Right now you have hyper inflated trucks, low rates and a parts shortage ontop of trucks that are way over miles AND price for what is typical. That makes this the WORST time to buy.

That said a smart man with enough startup can win in even the worst markets. And an idiot can lose in the best posible markets. Just why would you choose hard mode when you can wait a year or two and get easy mode or at least normal.

 

I agree with you 100%.
I must admit. I haven't looked at prices of equipment, rates are steady for me. When I work anyway.

 

So i found this as an example.

https://www.commercialtrucktrader.com/listing/2019-PETERBILT-579-5025467551

This truck has EXACTLY the same specs as my bullfrog did save it doesnt have an APU installed and an ISX instead of MX-13 same horsepower and gear ratio though. It has MORE miles then mine had and is in generally worse shape......it costs more on its own then i paid ALL IN on my bullfrog. That includes the sales taxes, fees, licenseing, warranty, wet kit, service, removing the roof ferring, new clutch amd a few other things. My truck all in was $78,000ish dollars after EVERYTHING.

This truck will likely be in the 100-150k range to clone my setup over to. Trucks are still going about double or triple the old rates right now. You have low mile (200ishK) trucks going for MORE then NEW trucks did when i started.

Equipment prices be bonkers yo.

 

What do you figure mine might be worth? I don't have a plethora of pictures. It's the one in my profile. 389, 2016, 500/1850 isx, 18, about 510,000 miles, 13.2/46, 3.73. Trailer is a great Dane, 2018, carrier 7500, ice cream spec. Only 8900 hours on it.

I am actually weighing my options for possibly exiting trucking.

Perhaps I should be a bit more thorough.
The truck empty full of fuel and def weighs 20,800 exactly. Trailer 15,200. Trailer 75g, truck 90/135, def 20. 78" sleeper, bunk beds. The sleeper ac had been pinched off. Repaired it 3 times it broke 4th time I don't really need it so not fixing it every year. Not enough frame space for apu. 244". Truck has about 10800 hours I think, never idle, average mph is something like 48. Espar bunk heater. Fridge, work station on the other side, full gauges and the in dash GPS which always glitched but it does give any error codes if they happen, never any major emission issues. Also have a box of sensors paid about 3,000 for. Came in handy a couple of times.

I really have no idea what it's worth. Always said I don't much care, I will let it sit in my driveway until I die. Everything is paid for. Just rethinking the whole business and if this is what I want to do til I am old. I am 35 and lots of cross roads in life. Sometimes I think it is pretty stupid considering everything on wheels depreciates, customers always want better rate, drivers leave for a nickel more elsewhere. Other times feel like I have the world by the short and curlys and I could conquer all.

 

Hard to say on the trailer. I run in diffrent circles then reefer so have zero honest clue @Ridgeline might know better there? I know he runs a small company but im not sure if he runs reefers or not. Best guess is 30-60k. He can also likely give a good idea on the truck as well.

Truck itself would likely be in the 80K-120K range depending on buyer and how fast you want to sell it. The 389 and 500/1850 with higher gearing and an 18 boosts it quite a bit. The 500k and isx hurts it as many ISXes of that era usually need a rebuild around 500k though a recent full emissions service can boost that a good deal. The busted AC glitching gps and with lack of APU hurt it a lot. Tire condition is going to play a big factor as well O/O package helps.

Honestly id say 75k for a fast sale 120K is going to be your top end if you wait for the right buyer. Fix the AC and gps you might be able to get 130-135K if you also have ALL the paperwork for every oilchange, repair maintaince everything.

Id list it 140k and let them talk you down if you want max value. May need to drop it more depending on market in your area. Advertise it as a good rock hauler truck and you will get a few bites. If your handy with a wrench you can get a used wetkit and 5th wheel lock for $2500 and install them and likely get a good 10-15K more. Just leave the hydro tank empty if your not using it and it wont add a lot of weight.

For a fast sale i would advertise it at 100k and adjust for area and let them talk you down.

 

Any one of us will need more information to actually give you good advice pro or con. I have 35 years in the business, 9 as an owner op and 2022 being my most profitable year yet. Doesn’t mean you should or shouldn’t become an owner op but good times are possible even in down times. Bad times are definitely possible and should be planned/saved for accordingly.

 

Hi Dean!
There are eleventy billion threads regarding this very subject on this site. Feel free to use the search feature.

 

Wait for truck prices to tank even more. The deals aren't good enough just yet. They've still got a long way they can drop. I bet we'll see newer 300,000+/- mile units in the $30-$40k range before long like happened back in 2008. That would be a bargain. Be selective in what you buy or these emissions trucks will lead you to ruin.

 

Wrong year, check back in 12 months.