RATES IN CA in --------->>>>>> 2014

I dont see it happening. Too many of the larger carriers (like all of them) have Ca compliant trucks already. the pretty much have the market covered IMHO.
I certainly wouldn't be rushing out to buy equipment based on that myself.

Martin

 

I'm not going to hell to pull freight for CA

 

I don't see rates coming up much if at all. I think there are alot of guys waiting until it gets closer to the end of the year to trade for compliant trucks, figuring that rates are gonna go up. So I don't forsee a shortage, it will be business as usual.

 

I'm not so sure Martin. JB Hunt, for example, has a ridiculous amount of 2000-2001 Wabash trailers still in their OTR fleet. It is my understanding that they would be required to add skirts to run them in CA. I would expect they will be liquidating these trailers within the next year or two anyways. I can't see them spending the money for skirts on 14 year old trailer. But that could have an impact of it's own, could drive down the used van trailer market significantly. I don't think they can send them all to Mexico.

 

I would imagine the likes of JB would put it on the rail, like they do now.
Driving down used van trailer prices has no affect on the freight rates in Ca though IMHO. Most, if not all, of the big companies are already set up for the new Ca regs, so freight will be covered with little to no disruption. The cost of putting side skirts onto box trailers is a drop in the ocean to those guys, so even if they outfitted 1/2 their old junk trailers to run out there, they will still be ahead in their minds.
Stick to my prior statement though, I see no raise in rates in Ca when the "new" emissions regulations come into affect.

Martin

 

I wonder what other effects it will have. You may be right, rates may not change. But I wonder what will become of all the older trucks in California ? Will they try to run them out of there to places like AL and GA or TX to sell ? Will you be able to go to CA and get a good deal on 00-04 trucks if you can get them out ? If the rates coming out don't change, what about the rates going in ? How many people are there out here like me that would have considered a load from Chicago to LA for the right price before. Now I wouldn't even touch it. IF there is enough people like me, surely that raises the rate, no ?

 

And there in lies the problem in my book. Absolutely zero solidarity between drivers etc. The big companies tell their guys to take a load, they take it. Mileage guys will get a ##### over a 2000mile load normally!
Now if the likes of just ONE big company said, enough is enough, then maybe there would be change. Unfortunately though, I dont see it happening across the board. There may be exceptions, where a shipper has dealt with one guy for many years, and is willing to pay a premium for his specific services, but how often does that happen these days? Especially when considering how much more money it will take to run out to Ca alone?
I would love to think that someone would pay more to have me specifically take their load out west for them, and be willing to pay for it. But my 2 million safe miles in 19 different countries mean absolutely zip to the average dweeb in an office, who books loads etc. They want the cheapest rate most of the time, and that is it. Hopefully all the bottom feeders will get nailed on a daily basis and start hurting financially, I just dont see it happening within my working lifetime is all.

Martin

 

A quick report by BB&T showed spot rates in and out of CA for the first 2 weeks of the year above contract rates in almost all markets. IN JANUARY. This is unheard of.

Buuuut, will this hold? It has hurt supply. Wells Fargo says this will impact the CA economy to the tune of almost $800 billion (yes, with a "B") a year. Some of this is upgrading equipment but also increase in rates and lost economic opportunities.

If March rolls around and things haven't changed you will have your answer. But there will be some that look at this as an opportunity and invest and go after this market. Not me, I am sure that money can be made but the risk is too high. And the biggest risk is CARB being legislated into a reasonable stance. They are losing support of the green community. So no more cover from the tree hugers.