For the first time in two years!

They're getting a little more reasonable again, still ridiculously high I think.

 

I can't remember who sent me the offer, NFI I think, but Cascadias around 500k miles, 17 and 18s, were around $55k. Which in my mind is about right.

 

Truckload market has had 25% too much capacity since year or so after deregulation
Bout same time rates started goin south

 

Back in 2009 similar mileage trucks were about $30k. There's still a ways it can keep tanking.

 

Guess I don't gauge much of anything off the price of fleet trucks, but even decent Pete's and KWs prices have come down a good bit in the last 6 months, unless they've been all redone and gussied up, those are still well over 100k.

 

Those trucks are always overpriced but back in 2009 even they were fairly cheap $50-$60k. That was back when used trucks were worth buying because you could still pick up nice 2000-2007 models with good pre-emissions engines. Used trucks these days are not worth the headaches but cheap ex-fleet truck prices draw new suckers into the business. There's always people on the sidelines with money looking for a time to get in. When I bought my first truck back in 2009 everyone said don't do it but I didn't listen.

 

For this news to become consolidated and meaningful, we still need to experience maybe 3 quarters of $1.78 per mile national average dry van freight rate. At that point, these crazy new truck prices should be at no more than $175k and used 4 year old ex fleet trucks at Arrow Truck sales for about $50k.
That's when the wallets of the most of spot market o/os will become thin but the time for truck shopping will be perfect.

 

I figure rates will stay low for 2 years.

 

If that's the worst. Then at least it allows us to build a budget.

 

Not really, got my W9 for 34k in 2016. Know a guy who bought one for 50k in 2019 or early 2020. Dad got a running driving 359 for under 10k in 2017 or 18. 2020-21 everything just got real stupid.