A new study released during the International Transport Forum (ITF) summit claims that autonomous trucks could make as many as 4.4 million trucking jobs “redundant” by 2030.
The study was conducted by a European organization made up of truck manufacturers, truck operators, and transportation workers unions. The report examines the possible impact that autonomous trucks will have on the transportation industries in Europe and the United States, but also makes recommendations for how to “help governments manage potential disruption and ensure a just transition for affected drivers.”
Named “Managing The Transition to Driverless Roadfreight Transport,” the study begins by briefly addressing the benefits that autonomous truck supporters see. It claims that self-driving trucks will lower costs, lower emissions, and make roads safer. But the rest of the report is dedicated to the issue of job loss.
Perhaps the most striking claim made in the report is that in one scenario, ITF claims that “of the 6.4 million driver jobs in 2030, between 3.4 and 4.4 million would become redundant if driverless trucks are deployed quickly.”
Even taking in to account the current ‘driver shortage’ in both Europe and the US, the aging driver workforce, and the expected increase in freight volume, the ITF believes that autonomous truck adoption will outpace demand for new drivers. With “strong adoption” of driverless technology, the number of truckers still on the road is predicted to be less than half what it would be without autonomous trucks.
So, since the ITF claims that driverless trucks could be a regular thing on roads around the world in the next 10 years, they’ve published a list of recommendations to try and soften the blow for truckers. That list includes the following:
- Continue driverless truck pilot projects to test vehicles, network technology and communications protocols
- Set international standards, road rules and vehicle regulations for self-driving trucks
- Establish a temporary transition advisory board for the trucking industry,
- Consider a temporary permit system to manage the speed of adoption and to support a just transition for displaced drivers, while ensuring fair access to markets
One of the ITF’s goals is to secure job placement for truckers who find themselves out of a job. In the report, it listed a number of “new and emerging” labor markets that truckers might try to enter. The list includes jobs as wide-ranging as freight forwarders, recycling and reclamation workers, baristas, and midwives.
Regardless of whether the ITF’s grim job-loss predictions turn out to be accurate, the warning they’re issuing is echoing around the world, both for trucking, and for other industries that could be disrupted by increased automation: “Preparing now for the potential negative social impact of job losses will mitigate the risks in case a rapid transition occurs.”
Source: fleetowner, itf, itf, cnbc, todaystrucking, automotiveworld, nzherald, trucks
Marion D. Hunt says
Who does securement checks every 150 miles? They still haven’t solved the construction zone problem. And sorry, but if a study mentions a driver shortage, you know the people performing the study are clueless.
Nunya says
problem is: clueless people are usually in charge
James says
There is a driver shortage. There is a worker shortage here in Michigan! Never seen it this bad! We have been looking for some hard working men, but they are very rare these days. This younger generation does not want to work.
Endangered Species says
Actually, Google’s self driving car has been navigating construction zones for years. There might be new requirements for construction barricades, to increase safety.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiwVMrTLUWg
It will probably be cheaper to have truckstops, that will all have the employees who fuel the trucks, also do securement checks for an extra fee. Flatbed companies will pay maybe $25 for a 15 minute securement check every 3 hours. Having a truck that runs 24/7 and doesn’t take breaks will more than compensate for the expense.
Robert says
Yes, and all of the employee’s will be fabricated by replacement tech, including the ceo’s themselves eventually all of commerce and government will be directing and running our lives.. a sobering thought experiment turning quickly into reality unless somebody decides to do what always gets done.. sabotage!
Will says
Those idiots will sabotage themselves by trying to cut corners
Alexfo7o says
Ok what happens when an expensive load of electronics is left in a bad neighborhood on its way to its destination because that place isn’t open and won’t be open for several hours who is going to secure it?
Who is going to put it back on course when GPS fucks up? Whe happens when the mechanical parts fail?
Bago says
FACTOID: My father told us that when Apex (Trinidad) Oilfields introduced the first bulldozer to clear drilling locations, the workers went on strike, fearing the loss of jobs for location clearers, who did the job with fork and shovel. Just a thought!
Christopher Spencer says
Frivolous!
Yes, frivolous numbers compared to the hundreds of millions of people autonomous rigs will collaterally kill and injure from software glitches.
DO NOT TELL ME IT WILL NOT HAPPEN!
These very statistics have been hidden from the public view with the help of governing bodies across the globe.
The testing on public highways have been implemented in such simple and fail-safe conditions to fool the public into believing there are no concerns with safety.
It cannot ever happen unless we keep the vehicles on some sort of track or rails…Oh sorry, we call those Trains. We all know people and trains never have collision incidents.
Billy D. says
ONLY the STUPID get hit by a train, and most do NOT survive !!!
Alexfo7o says
You are right on! Computers fail 100% of the time the first 15% in the first year; combined that with the failure and breakdown rates of vehicles. Anyone that thinks this is a good idea is stupid.
Kevin says
IF (and that’s a big if), this happens, 4.4 million? How is the economy going to sustain such a hit of mostly Un-Skilled laboratory. No offense, most of us don’t have degrees. In addition, any jobs left in trucking will without a doubt truly force wages down.
Can’t beat em, join em HELLO WELFARE!
Endangered Species says
Machines have been replacing people since the industrial revolution. A farm that once required a family an entire season to harvest the crops can now be harvested by a single, self driving machine in a day.
Within 100 years or so, computers will program themselves, and design machines to perform every service currently provided by humans. What takes years of schooling can be uploaded to a machine in seconds.
The trade of labor and creativity in exchange for financial compensation is about to become obsolete. This COULD create a utopia, where humans are afforded a carefree life, where all necessities, and many luxuries are provided by machines, if only the people in power weren’t so determined to cause unnecessary human suffering.
Every business that refuses to replace humans with machines, when a machine is created to do the same job, is put out of business by competition that does. Human beings are expensive labor, and a lot less reliable than a machine.
The scariest part is that from a logical standpoint (the type that computers take), the human species is the most detrimental species on the planet, and the simplest solution is to destroy it.
Rob W says
I agree with the idea about A.I. possibly turning on us. I disagree about your idea that we will be living the easy life with automatons doing everything. Who is going to pay us for this easy life ? Control from the top down depends on keeping us at the bottom struggling to make a living. The Capitalist system will not go away replaced by freedom, peace and equal prosperity. Those with the money have spent literally hundreds of years building their wealth because it controls all of the population. Do you think these people will give up their control and power ?
Ray says
You’ll also see the rates of suicide and alcoholism grow in direct proportion of jobs lost no matter what the industry.
Jimmy says
Who pays the welfare tax payers no job no taxes no welfare.
Will says
But rich guys will be fine. A quick change to the rules, saying only taxpayers can vote, and the political problem is solved.
ChromeGetsYouHome says
This is a real economic concern, even if the number of job eliminations isn’t quite as high as the study suggests. My understanding is that you would still need someone in the truck who’s basically like an airline pilot to handle things when something goes wrong — construction zone, inspecting the load, etc. I can’t imagine the pay would be good for the rider/driver and it would be an amazingly boring job. On the displaced worker issue, drivers definitely will make up the bulk of lost jobs but how many fewer people will carriers need in recruiting? How many fewer people will carriers need in operations, as the truck won’t have many special requests? How much less will carriers need to spend on legal issues?
David Rouse says
And the US will be first to plan ahead for the drivers losing jobs like they already have. Sure!
David Stout says
Interesting. So how will a driverless truck load cars onto my car hauler? So I guess the cars will be driverless and inspect themselves for scratches and dents, then if found will write a report that the car didn’t do the scratch or dent, then the car will load itself onto the trailer and some how strap all 4 tires down to the trailer, adjust the trailer for the next car and repeat the process and once all the cars are loaded by themselves the driverless truck will drive the cars across America and unload themselves. Lol, not happening in my career because I have 2 to 4 more years of driving before I retire. I’m safe.
adrian dochia says
The employees. They will do that. They will have people at the pickup and delivery. They will unload or load only , 8-10 trucks/day.
B Carter says
This article is talking about driverless trucks, not the loading and off loading.
adrian dochia says
The guy asked who will unload, load trucks. If they don’t have a driver…
J Carter says
What people seem to be missing is the major hit that many people entering the ranks of jobless will have on the economy. 4.4 million people who will no longer be able to buy the product that trucks haul. So who’s going to buy these products?
Also, what about the truck stops? With no more drivers for them to (mercilessly) fleece, how will they stay in business? So then, that means another who-knows-how-many millions out of work.
Yeah, you go automation. Wreck our economy. Who needs millions without enough money to buy the things that make trucks necessary at all?
Steve says
J Carter, The knock on effect is almost uncountable. I wouldn’t know where to begin. The list is endless.
To be honest I do not think this is going to come as quick as some think. There is going to be a massive question with the insurance companies and let’s face it they run America. No actuary tables and so no way to assess the risk. No way to assess the risk no way to calculate premiums. Government will want them insured so there will be a massive slow down on implementation due to the insurance companies.
Then there is as has already been mentioned all the ancillary work. How does an automated truck inspect a tire? Load a car? Remove debris? Again the list is endless.
The only way this is useful, and I don’t care what fancy videos they have of trash trucks negotiating city streets, is the wide open plains of Montana and Wyoming.
AND WE STILL LOSE JOBS>
Hopefully I will have retired.
Rob W says
While you are right, who is to say what money will be and in what form ? Your retirment funds might be turned into computer credits which can easily be hacked or made worhtless by governments. The truth is, at the top, the Rothschilds are most wealthy, they have thousands of the most elite rich with them. This group I shall call the New World Order, have virtually all the worlds wealth at their disposal. Including your retirement money. Everything you think you own can be taken from you legally by the authorities, no government party or president will help you. I wish you good luck things will not change in your life, they will in mine unless I die first.
Walt says
Law written that for every driverless truck,you have to pay the driver it replaced for 20 years .
That makes the decision only about Safty because the cost will be more
Jerry says
I got my fishing pole and lawn chair ready, and put a garden in, im good to go. Will have to bring back trading like the Indians did many years ago
Ryan b says
Amen brother
Rob W says
A moneyless agrarian lifestyle based on trade is the only thing that can save us. Literally Co-op living, talking face to face and getting back to the earth the way we did in before the 20th century. We are headed that way, our antibiotics are failing, vaccines are made dirty, anti-virals barely work if they work at all. Everything is sliding downhill and picking up steam. I wish you the best, it sounds ideal but you will have develop a taste for catfish and asian carp. They will be the only thing left in the way of fish.
David Wayne says
They did not mention computer hacking as a career choice. These trucks will have computers and wireless technologies targeted for sabotage by a lot of angry, jobless people with time on their hands
Michael Bell says
The way the U.S. current infrastructure is now plus taking in account of other drivers and weather conditions, there is absolutely no way you will be able to just plop an 80,000 pound autonomous truck and try to get it to and around major cities without an accident.
Just as much as you need a pilot to fly a cargo plane across the world, you need a professional driver to haul freight across the country.
F D. Trump says
Sounds Awesome! Please send that welfare check and all the trimmings to my bouncy castle on the beach. I’ll be the one with the tan and a 40 ounce in my hand watching the biggest highway fatality rate in history unfold on the news. When you beg us to come back the price will be triple. Except for Swift of course.
TJC says
Here here!!!! Yessir! And one would be a fool not to see it coming!!! This world is just showing one of it’s biggest defects: INSATIABLE GREED!!! Penny wise and dollar foolish…
Chris Olsen says
This is stupid just look at the airlines, theyre fully automated and theres not 1, but 2 pilots.
adrian dochia says
Hm.. is not the same thing, we have people on board, and the plane cost billions.
Billy D. says
AS time will tell THAT is exactly the issue. I think there will be a time, when truck drivers will do nothing but inspect, and drive their assigned vehicle. The people involved in the money of the industry are trying real hard to deny this but it is going to happen !!!
Charlie says
Planes don’t have the traffic trucks do though.
shogun says
The article used the word “redundant”, essentially screaming how little they understand the industry. Was my job redundant yesterday when I had to get perfectly straight to cross an elevated bridge with no barriers, and if I screwed up it drops 6 feet in a ditch? Was it redundant when I had to blundside into the dock in Memphis Wednesday because the architects thought I only need 20 feet to pull in and hit the dock? How redundant is it when I block 3 lanes of a major thoroughfare to get on a door at my own risk downhill from a blind curve? My day consistently includes getting within inches of striking something, making turns that start out in the oncoming traffic lane, and making split second decisions because employees don’t consider trucks when they park their cars. Some geek from Silicon Valley will not anticipate what I do everyday, so maybe I’m one of the three million that is safe. I like how they say it will save money. Will that money be passed back to the consumer? Not a chance. Plenty of cheap loadboard freight for them to haul from one city limit to the destination city limit and unload on the shoulder since they seem to think that’s what trucking is. I’m not even going to start on their fantasyland “ooh, this autonomous truck will never stop, always get unloaded and reloaded within minutes, shippers now ship 24/7/365′” horse crap they are hyping to sell a product.
Charles Ball says
Automation won’t kill driver jobs, there will always be a driver in the truck. The trucks are only going to drive autonomously on the highway. They will switch over to the driver in the city, and other situations (like accidents and construction zones)
Jimmy says
Not according to this report they actually think trucks will be out there all by themselves smh I can’t see that happening will the truck fuel itself also or will it be fuel less also?
Daniel O'Connell says
Ghost-Trucks Ahoy!
I don’t mean to sound pessimistic here folks, but theft of freight and cargo from driver-less rigs should be most interesting. Instead of employing truck drivers, companies will be forced into to staging (in-cab) armed security guards to protect over-the-road shipments. Thieves will go crazy, and surely reap havoc on all loads especially interstate cargo: tools, garments, grocery, and drug shipments, all estimated to be most vulnerable/desirable targets. Just a matter of hacking into the vehicle control system, and presto, robot truck is pulled over and expeditiously unloaded!
Imagine fuel and hazmat, can you really see this happening soon? Sort of ridiculous, but either way, should be hilarious to see how this conundrum unfolds over the next decade. Political issues, union objections, protests, armed insurrection by out-of-work and distraught truckers, the possibilities are simply endless. New Career Opportunity
Truck drivers may be forced to move into security, just imagine the cost of loss claims on sabotaged freight carried by robot “Ghost Trucks,” enough to stagger the imagination!
Will says
A good portion of drivers are vets anyway. We already have the skills needed to stand guard.
At least the trucking companies won’t need to handle the training!!
YoungGun says
LMAO! They can’t even get cars that supposedly self park to operated right in a parking lot. What insurance company is going to insure these please some one tell me? Self insured companies? that money will only go so far, they have already proven that they can hack and attack the autonomous trucks. This is ridiculous. Love to see this thing in action downtown Chicago in rush hour playing around in the Bronx on a lovely Friday afternoon in the market. These idiots have no idea what they are talking about.
Joe says
How it the truck supposed to open it’s rear doors and handle paperwork?Fax the broker?answer a customs officer? Sounds like a self driving truck will be more like a driving assist option
Doug says
They (, the driverless vehicle designers) have absolutely no clue of the 100 unknowns that can happen in a truck.as sundance said to butch” keep thinking butch that’s what your good at”.
Mike says
Good riddance I hate this job, cant park anywhere always in everyones way, shippers and receivers treating you like a criminal, if Im forced out I’ll actually find another job or be homeless doesnt matter either way.
Ray says
I am a commercial pilot (not active)
Does anyone realize that the B747 and Air bus can taxi, take off, fly enroute and land by itself? I’m still seeing pilots on planes.
astin says
Let’s see a franken-plane take over for Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger when he saved his whole plane and all his crew and passengers.
Who says
This is. Oking we like it or not. Start looking for new job local deliveres plant nurseries and similar where requires loading unloading. Sooner u switch the better good luck
Cin says
Seems like there will be a whole lot more of us than machine operated people? Just a thought!
Rob N14 says
Millions of unemployed truckers parking in front of driverless trucks blocking highways and local streets. This oughtta be good ??
Richard says
It won t happen it can t fuel itself
Weigh the load axle out or open and close trailer doors do a proper
Pretrip good luck
Jimmy says
I’ve been in this business too long to buy into this crap how will food get into restaurant’s and how will the city work get done? Are they going to have auto hand trucks too that load up and wheel the stuff into places lol
Sonny Crockett says
Robot trucks. Well they’ve already slowed down the triple digit trucks. Guess they’re going to slow down the robot trucks too. Whereas it took me 3 days to drive from Texas to New Jersey now it will take 6 days in a robot truck. Yeah this is a great idea. Hell who gonna back these trucks into the docks if you cut out the driver. No more lumpers to over charge the drivers for unloading. 4.4 million dollars try 4.4 billion dollar loss of money. There goes the national debt.
Doug says
Wait till the hackers or terrorists figure out how to take over the computers in this. No computer system is 100% secure.
Just because something can be computerized, doesn’t always mean it’s a great idea.
2.5 years till I retire, then I’ll sit back and watch this disaster unfold.
Alan says
They can simply stop all trucks on a highway, disrupt food delivery, that sure will send a stock market into a dive.
Alexander Disner says
Nope. 36 tons at highway speed can cause a lot of damage. How tempting is to hack a commercial truck to commit a terrorist act? Nope. As easy as it is to hack a computer if a hacker really wants to, it will be easy to hack 10 trucks on a highway and start chaos.
Joe says
Can you imagine the nerves of steel it would take to be the rider in one of these. Hell it takes a lot of nerve and confidence to operate as team drivers now. A co- pilot so to speak would probably buy the first drug he or she can find.
Rick robertson says
That would never fly roads would b totally dangers to every 1 else think of power outages an computer crashes a number of things could go wrong to much of a risk
nah man says
what about drop hook? whos gonna connect airlines?
astin says
Where are they going to find their “elite” drivers? They’re not going to let just any driver in their multimillion dollar franken-truck.
Jeremy says
The day a big truck finds it’s way to a delivery address for 5th Ave. or Park Ave. etc. in Manhattan using autonomous technology with no driver on board, then I’ll be convinced. I find it inconceivable,as I’m sure all other drivers do who have experience in the profession, that a machine will ever be able to effectively compute all the variables involved with accomplishing such a task. This is just one example. There are countless more similar scenarios pertaining to every large city centre one can think of.
Daniel Carter says
Become a wrecker driver. It will be impossible to replace a human on a wrecker.
Trucking S Boring says
Hopefully it will mostly affect FedEx drivers and get them off the roads instead of mowing down whatever happens to be in their path
Trucking S Boring says
I think that the last mile problem will still keep some glorified yard dogs busy but the monotonous work of driving long distance is not good work for humans
Will says
I love that part of the job. I routinely drive 15-16 gours straight, listening to audiobooks. It ain’t for everybody, but that doesn’t mean noone should do it.
astin says
In all the time you’ve been a driver, how many times have you seen 4 truckloads coming out of the same location that was being delivered to the same location? In my experience, twice. How will they handle and justify 4 trucks doing one delivery of one ltl or even one full truck load? There also isn’t room to accommodate every pick up or delivery for every body to drive in with 4 trucks that aren’t going to be used for your one load. What they gonna do?
astin says
Actually, to correct myself, it will be 1 driver, 4 trucks, 3 trailers each, a total of 12 trailers. Imagine that going 65 mph on any roadway.
Blue Heron says
I don’t think it will go as smoothly as they say. I once worked for a television factory. They started bringing in 40,000 robots to insert screws. Was to save them tons of money. Everyone was so scared the robots were going to eventually take their jobs. Anyway…these robots were garbage. We would often have to beat them with a stick to get them working. They had to bring in a robot specialist who made well over a hundred grand a year to fix the robots. In the end…and after much money to fix the problem, we still had to hit it with a stick. Just saying….
Rick says
Driverless trucks? That’s a sure sign the rich people’s end is near. 4.4 million jobs loss how is the rich gonna make money off the broke and poor. How ever by the time this all goes down I’ll be retired living some where off the grid and beating path. I don’t need commerace and the rich just me and my wife with our small land can survive.
JL says
They won’t work! Drivers do way more than just drive. It’s a failed study!