Import Cargo Slows Into Major Container Ports

 

The latest Global Port Tracker report, released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates on November 10, projects a noticeable slowdown in import cargo at the nation’s largest container ports. With most holiday goods already in stores and warehouses, imports are set to decline through November and December, marking the slowest pace since March 2023.

Holiday Demand Eases as Retailers Stay Ahead of Tariffs

Retailers have spent most of 2025 navigating a volatile trade environment, particularly with ongoing tariff uncertainty. However, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said the industry’s proactive approach has helped minimize disruptions.

• Retailers frontloaded shipments earlier in the year to avoid potential tariff increases.

• Some absorbed additional costs to keep store shelves well stocked and consumer prices stable.

• Despite policy unpredictability, the 2025 holiday season is expected to run smoothly for consumers.

Gold noted, “The effect on prices has been minimized, largely thanks to retailers’ planning and early import strategies.”

Tariff Policy Adds Complexity for Importers

Ongoing trade tensions continue to create uncertainty for importers and carriers.

• A 20% “fentanyl” tariff on Chinese goods was reduced to 10% as of November 10.

• A planned increase in “reciprocal” tariffs on China was delayed by one year.

• The Supreme Court is currently reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said these shifting policies make long-term planning difficult. “Our trade outlook forecasts a small decline in imports for 2025 compared with last year, and a larger drop in the first quarter of 2026,” Hackett explained.

Import Volumes Decline Across Major U.S. Ports

According to the report, U.S. ports handled 2.1 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units) in September 2025, representing:

• A 9.3% decrease from August.

• A 7.4% decline compared to September 2024.

Forecasts for upcoming months show continued contraction:

• October: 1.99 million TEU (down 11.5% year-over-year).

• November: 1.85 million TEU (down 14.4%).

• December: 1.75 million TEU (down 17.9%).

If accurate, December’s total would be the lowest since March 2023, when imports fell to 1.62 million TEU.

The decline reflects a mix of seasonal slowdown and tariff-related frontloading, as retailers accelerated shipping earlier in 2025 to avoid potential disruptions.

Outlook for 2026: Further Declines Expected

While imports peaked in July 2025 at 2.39 million TEU, the full-year total is expected to reach 24.9 million TEU, a 2.3% drop from 2024.

Early 2026 projections show continued weakness:

• January: 1.98 million TEU (down 11.1%).

• February: 1.85 million TEU (down 9%).

• March: 1.79 million TEU (down 16.7%).

Despite slowing import activity, NRF forecasts holiday retail sales to grow 3.7%–4.2% year-over-year, surpassing $1 trillion.

 

Source:

https://www.truckinginfo.com/10250269/import-cargo-slows-into-major-container-ports