A Growing CDL Population Amid Market Uncertainty
The U.S. trucking industry is split on whether it’s facing a driver shortage or a driver surplus. According to the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI), the number of long-haul CDL holders has risen to about 3 million in 2025, a 30% increase from 2.3 million in 2016. While slightly below the 2019 peak, the driver population remains historically high — even as carriers face years of weakened pricing power from overcapacity.
The Case for Too Many Drivers
Transportation and Logistics Advisors argue that the market’s biggest issue is not a shortage, but too many drivers. Between 2019 and 2024, the number of drivers grew 2.2%, while for-hire tonnage dropped 0.7%. This reverse trend compared to the post-recession recovery years has left the market saturated with drivers despite weaker freight demand.
Higher wages may be keeping drivers in the industry. ATRI’s compensation survey found the average truck driver salary hit $76,420 in 2023, over 20% higher than five years ago (adjusted for inflation). Private fleets, which offer richer benefits and higher pay — averaging $95,114 in 2023 — have further intensified competition for labor, making it difficult for for-hire fleets to scale down without losing their driver base.
The Case for Not Enough Drivers
On the other side, Tech.co’s “Moving Goods with Fewer Hands” survey found that 69% of logistics professionals believe a driver shortage is impacting their ability to meet freight demand. 63% said recruitment and retention had stagnated or worsened over the past year.
The top barriers to attracting drivers include compensation and benefits (39%), long hours (38%), and regulatory burdens (33%). Interestingly, turnover was less of a concern for respondents — though ATRI still pegs industry turnover at 48%, with some fleets facing rates above 90%, much higher than the U.S. blue-collar average of 15%.
A Changing Driver Workforce
Regardless of capacity concerns, trucking demographics are shifting:
- Aging Workforce: ATRI’s latest survey found the average driver age is 58, up from 50 in 2013.
- Fleet Size Shifts: From 2016 to 2025, the share of CDL holders in one-truck fleets rose from 6.2% to 7.1%, while those in fleets of 100+ trucks fell from 52.1% to 46.1%.
- Increased Racial Diversity: Between 2014 and 2023, Hispanic drivers rose from 19% to 23%, Black drivers from 15% to 23%, and Asian drivers from 2% to 4%.
- Gender Gap Remains: Women still make up just 4.1% of truck drivers, far below their 47.1% share of the national workforce.
Outlook
While analysts disagree on whether there are too many or too few drivers, the trucking industry’s labor market is clearly evolving. High wages, an aging workforce, shifting fleet structures, and increased diversity all shape the driver pool — but the balance between capacity and freight demand remains a moving target.
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