Carrier Population Trends
The U.S. trucking industry showed modest signs of stabilization in August 2025, with the for-hire carrier population expanding for the second straight month. According to FTR’s preliminary analysis of FMCSA data, total net revocations — which track authority rejections minus reinstatements — fell to 4,498, down from July’s 4,747. This marked a continued slowdown from June’s year-to-date peak of 5,502 revocations.
At the same time, 4,930 new for-hire carriers were authorized in August, a slight dip from July’s 5,063 but still above the year-to-date monthly average of 4,770 and higher than 2024’s average of 4,636. This balance of fewer exits and slightly lower new entries resulted in a net gain of 432 carriers month over month.
Class 8 Equipment Orders
On the equipment side, preliminary Class 8 truck net orders reflected ongoing weakness. FTR estimated 13,000 units in August, while ACT Research placed the figure at 13,200 — both showing year-over-year declines of more than 14%. Although FTR noted a 4% month-to-month improvement, August marked the eighth consecutive annual decline in orders, coming in well below the 10-year average of 23,135.
Fleets appear to be extending truck lifespans in response to tariffs, regulatory uncertainty, and soft freight demand. This shift may raise maintenance costs in the short term but could also lay the groundwork for tighter capacity when OEMs reopen their order books for the 2026 cycle.
Employment and Capacity Dynamics
Employment levels in the trucking sector remained stable but muted. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that for-hire trucking companies shed 900 payroll jobs in August, though employment was still 0.4% higher than the same month in 2024 and slightly above pre-pandemic February 2020 levels. More detailed data showed that job gains earlier in the year were largely offset by declines during June and July.
It’s important to note that changes in carrier counts don’t always reflect true capacity shifts. Many new carriers are former leased drivers or company employees, meaning driver supply remains relatively unchanged, even as carrier authority figures fluctuate.
Regulatory Pressures and ELP Enforcement
A new factor influencing capacity is the federal English Language Proficiency (ELP) rule, reinstated in late June. Early enforcement has already placed thousands of drivers out of service for failing language requirements. While initially a small percentage of the overall driver base, the issue gained national attention following a fatal Florida crash on August 12 involving a non-domiciled CDL holder who failed an ELP assessment.
In response, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a pause on all worker visas for commercial truck drivers, potentially tightening labor availability further. FMCSA data shows that by late August, about 27% of ELP violations had resulted in drivers being taken off the road, with enforcement disparities among states leaving the door open for stricter federal oversight in coming months.
Source:
https://www.ryantrans.com/september-2025-industry-update-truckload-capacity-outlook?
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